The Buffalo Bills will be underdogs when they face the Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional Round Finale Sunday night. Kansas City opened as 2.5-point favorites, but the line has since moved to -1.5 at several sportsbooks as of Friday morning.
QB Josh Allen and the Bills are coming off a perfect offensive game against the New England Patriots in the Wild Card Round, but Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is coming off a pretty good one, as well. Either one team will disappoint its fan base and struggle, or this could be a high-scoring game.
Bills Vs. Chiefs Betting Odds
|BetMGM||Bills +1.5 (-110) |
Chiefs -1.5 (-110)
|Bills +105 |
|Over 53.5 (-110)|
Under 53.5 (-110)
|DraftKings||Bills +2 (-110) |
Chiefs -2 (-110)
|Bills +105 |
|Over 54 (-115)|
Under 54 (-105)
|FanDuel||Bills +1.5 (-106) |
Chiefs -1.5 (-114)
|Bills +110 |
|Over 53.5 (-115)|
Under 53.5 (-105)
|Caesars||Bills +1.5 (-110) |
Chiefs -1.5 (-110)
|Bills +110 |
|Over 54 (-110)|
Under 54 (-110)
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Buffalo Bills (12-6 SU, 10-6-2 ATS)
The Bills learned the hard way when they played the Chiefs in last season’s AFC title game — you can’t beat Kansas City kicking field goals. No, you must get in the endzone, which is what they did during the regular season when these two teams met, and they won, 38-20.
However, the Chiefs team the Bills will face this week is nothing like the one they beat back in Week Five.
Allen will need to be at his best against a Kansas City defense that held the Steelers to just 257 yards last week, much of which came during garbage time. With how Allen carved up a better Patriots defense last weekend, fans are probably not too worried.
They may be concerned about how the defense will hold up against a red-hot Mahomes. Mahomes has thrown 17 touchdown passes to just two interceptions in his last six games. Buffalo’s defense has given up six passing touchdowns and made five interceptions in the Bills’ last six games.
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Kansas City Chiefs (13-5 SU, 9-9 ATS)
The Chiefs did not look good in the first half of the season, but no one could stop them once things got rolling in the second half. After the loss to Tennessee dropped their record to 3-4, the team woke up on both sides of the ball. First, the defense played faster and started making plays. Second, the offense finally came alive down the stretch.
Mahomes exploded in the final five games of the regular season, throwing at least two touchdown passes in each of the remaining five games (12 total) and just one interception. Against the Steelers last week, he blew up for 404 yards and five touchdowns — his third 5+ touchdown day and third 400+ yards day this season.
Of course, it will not be as easy this week going up against Buffalo’s No. 1-ranked pass defense (163 yards/game). It may help if the Chiefs could get their run game on track, but the Bills are not easy to run on (109.8 yards/game; 13th in the NFL).
Our Pick: Bills +2
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Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards (O/U 281.5 -114/-114 at FanDuel New York)
In his last five games (including last week’s wild card game), Mahomes has averaged 320.5 yards per game — a stat that benefited from two 400+ yard games. During the regular season, he had five games in which he threw for 282+ yards, but with the talent at his disposal, Mahomes is capable of exploding for 300+ in every game. However, the Bills defense has allowed just one quarterback to throw for 282+ yards all season — Tom Brady. Most failed to throw for 200 yards.
Josh Allen Combined Passing and Rushing Yards (O/U 334.5 -115/-115 at DraftKings New York)
It’s risky to let your quarterback run, but the Bills have been given Allen a long leash in recent weeks. He’s had 63+ rushing yards in each of his last four games. Combined with his passing yards, he has had 330+ total yards in two. Against the Chiefs in Week Five, he had 315 yards passing and another 59 yards rushing.
However, the Chiefs’ defense has been playing better in recent weeks. Good enough to slow down Allen? Eh, maybe.
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Buffalo Bills Anytime Touchdown Scorers
Josh Allen +150 (DraftKings); Dawson Knox +180 (FanDuel); Devin Singletary +100 (BetMGM New York)
Allen has six rushing touchdowns on the season and is not afraid to go for it in the red zone. Singletary has been running well in recent weeks and has scored eight touchdowns in his last five games. Knox had two last week against the Patriots and nine during the regular season, including one against the Chiefs.