It is the battle for The Empire State as the New York Jets will head to Buffalo to take on their AFC East rival Buffalo Bills on Sunday. Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET on CBS.
This should be another fun matchup, but the player prop market is rich with exciting props and great value. There are a lot of bets to be made with all of the New York sports betting apps available, and we are here to give you the best props to make for this game.
Both the Jets and the Bills enter this matchup in the heart of the AFC playoff picture, but Buffalo currently sits atop the AFC East, despite losing to New York earlier in the season. The Jets defeated the Bills 20-17 on Nov. 6, but they have since made a quarterback change, with Zach Wilson benched in favor of the surging Mike White.
Since their matchup earlier in the season, the Bills have gone 3-1 and are once again considered one of the best teams in the NFL after a mid-season lull. Because of their recent success, DraftKings Sportsbook NY lists the Bills as 10-point favorites, with the total set at 43. Buffalo is also a heavy favorite on the moneyline with its odds at -475, and the Jets are massive underdogs with +375 odds on the moneyline.
Jets Player Props
Garrett Wilson Receiving Yards: Over 61.5 (-115 Ceasers)
Wilson has started to blossom as expected when he was just a draft prospect. On the season, he hauled 57 catches for 790 yards and four receiving touchdowns for the New York Jets. If you hate doing math, that means he is putting up 65.8 receiving yards per game, which would obviously put us over this number, and he is one of the better deep threats in the NFL, with an average of 13.9 yards per catch.
While he has been good throughout his rookie campaign, with Mike White at the reigns, he has been even better. Over the last two games, both of which White started, Wilson has put up 13 catches for 257 yards and two touchdowns. Wilson is also targeted at an average of 11.5 times when White is starting. If you look at his receiving numbers when he is getting at least eight targets in a game, Wilson is averaging 93.8 receiving yards, and he has gone under this number only twice.
It has been a tremendous rookie season for one-half of the Ohio State rookie receivers, and a quarterback change giving this offense a breath of fresh air, or just the ability to throw the ball effectively throughout the course of one game gives Wilson more opportunities, and as we can see, when Wilson gets his chances, he makes the most of them.
Tyler Conklin Total Receptions: Over 2.5 (-135 DraftKings)
We have another case of White playing well for a Jets receiver prop. After starting the season as one of the most targeted players in this offense, Conklin has slowed down as of late, but again, with White getting the snaps, this passing attack is much more lethal.
Last week against the Minnesota Vikings, Conklin was targeted seven times, which is the most passes he has seen thrown the way since Oct. 30, but he caught two passes for nine yards. The good news is that all we need is for those targets to keep going up. He can catch three one-yard receptions, and this prop will cash. With how New York gets its tight ends involved in both the run and pass to make things easier for its young quarterback, this offense has the potential to be among the most dangerous in the NFL, especially with this deep receivers room.
On the season, Conklin has gone over this number seven times, and in those games, he is averaging 6.8 targets per game. Now that Von Miller is out for the season, a Buffalo Bills defense that is allowing five receptions to tight ends per game just got worse in the front seven, and the Jets should be able to attack that zone with Conklin effectively.
Michael Carter Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+250 FanDuel)
Carter has not had the season Jets fans expected, but New York will need him and the running game if it wants to take down the Bills again. The last time these AFC East rivals played, the Jets walked away with a 20-17 win, and Carter had 76 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown.
On the season, Carter only has three scores, but he sat behind Breece Hall for most of the season before Hall suffered a season-ending injury, and James Robinson has not seen enough playing time for him to be a threat to Carter’s reps.
Although the Bills’ pass defense is among the best in the NFL, their red zone defense has been even better. Buffalo only allows teams to score touchdowns on 47.22% of their red zone trips, and the Bills are giving up two touchdowns per game.
With how well the Jets have thrown the ball with White as the starter, there should be no problems moving the ball down the field, especially if they have already done it against this defense. However, things get tighter as you creep up on the end zone, so expect the Jets to get Carter involved in the red zone, especially with Buffalo’s defense taking a massive hit in the front seven with Miller out for the year.
Buffalo Bills Player Props
Devin Singletary Rushing + Receiving Yards: Over 54.5 (-115 DraftKings)
The thing about New York’s defense that most people don’t realize is that it is really good at pretty much everything. The Jets are ranked sixth in scoring (18.6 points allowed per game), fifth in yards per rush (4.1), fourth in yards per pass (5.8), and third in yards per play (4.8). The last time these two teams played each other, the Bills put up the yards to give the allusion of playing well, but they threw two interceptions, and their leading rusher was Josh Allen.
This time, the Jets will come to Buffalo, where the Bills have had success running the ball. They are averaging 6.6 yards per rush as a team, and they have five rushing touchdowns at home. Since the Jets game a few weeks ago, Singletary has gone over this number twice with just his rushing stats alone, and he is averaging 14.5 carries per game compared to 9.8 carries in every other game.
However, Singletary’s production in the passing game has practically disappeared since the first Jets game, as he has four receptions for 19 yards in four games, but before that, he was putting up 25.8 receiving yards per game, which would be a good number here if he has even an average day on the ground.
Josh Allen Passing Yards: Under 255.5 (+100 DraftKings)
Allen is incredible at what he does. Every week he does something that makes the entire world question if he is of the same species as the rest of us. But he hurt his throwing elbow against the Jets earlier in the season, and there is something off with him.
Before that game, he put up 314 passing yards per game and 19 touchdowns on a 65.3% completion percentage. Since then, Allen has only passed for 250.8 yards per game with six touchdowns in four games. Thankfully for Buffalo, the rest of the team is so good that it has gone 3-1 during this stretch, with the lone loss coming against the Vikings in a hilariously-wild fashion.
In total, the Bills have fewer passing yards at home, but they are picking up 8.7 yards gained per attempt compared to 6.9 Y/A on the road. This is because Buffalo is much more lethal at home, so it does not have to pass as often. Player props are simple if you just look at the number of opportunities a player is getting or how much they should get in any given matchup.
New York is good against the run, but that does not automatically mean the Bills will throw the ball all over this defense. These teams are similar on the defensive side of the ball, so expect a tight game in which the Bills pull away late, and Allen can put his arm on ice the rest of the way.
Gabriel Davis Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+170 Ceasers)
New York drafted Ahmad ‘Sauce’ Gardner in the first round, which was an extremely wise decision. Gardner has the best coverage grade in the NFL, according to PFF. He leads the league in passes defended, he locks down every team’s WR1, and he has allowed only one touchdown and a completion percentage of 43.9 when the ball is thrown his way.
Gardner will go up against Stefon Diggs, who is arguably the best receiver in the league, and that does not mean the rest of the Bills are just going to run wild, but there is a lot of value on the board, and it starts with Davis. Caesars Sportsbook NY has the best odds for his anytime touchdown prop, and you should jump on it immediately. On the season, Davis has six touchdowns, and he is averaging 19.0 yards per reception.
Davis broke out in the AFC Divisional round of the playoffs against the Chiefs last season, and he has not looked back. He is second on the Bills in targets (67), and with the amount of attention that Diggs requires, Davis can thrive against this defense, especially deep down the field.
AP Photo/Bruce Kluckhohn