From the original 48 teams, only four remain. Argentina, France, Spain, and England are now battling for places in the World Cup final at MetLife Stadium.
The last four is set, and for the first time in the tournament’s history it is made up of the top four ranked teams in the world going in.
There is no easy passage left for anyone. France and Spain arrive unbeaten and having conceded once apiece across their last five matches.
England and Argentina both needed extra time just to get here, and both have spent the last month proving they can win ugly as well.
Here is the schedule for the final four, along with where the numbers point for each tie.
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World Cup 2026 Semifinal Schedule
Match 101: France vs. Spain, Tuesday, July 14, 3:00pm ET, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Match 102: England vs. Argentina, Wednesday, July 15, 3:00pm ET, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Third Place Play Off: Saturday, July 18, 5:00pm ET, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens
Final: Sunday, July 19, 3:00pm ET, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
France vs. Spain Prediction and Odds
This is the tie the tournament was building toward before a ball was even kicked. France and Spain have sat first and second on the outright odds board since the draw was made, and it is the pairing that decides who becomes the overwhelming favorite heading into the final.
Both sides have conceded a single goal across their knockout matches. France is outscoring opponents 16-2 across the tournament, while Spain sits at 11-1.
Their only previous World Cup meeting came in the 2006 Round of 16, when France won 3-1.
France goes in with the slightly better attacking numbers, built on Kylian Mbappe’s tournament high eight goals and Ousmane Dembele now level with Just Fontaine as the third Frenchman to score five in a single World Cup.
Mbappe is carrying a minor ankle knock from the win over Morocco but is expected to be fit, and Aurelien Tchouameni remains a fitness doubt in midfield.
Spain’s issue has been personnel rather than form. Nico Williams and Yeremy Pino have been out since picking up injuries in the same group stage match, leaving Luis de la Fuente shorter on width than he would like against a French backline that has barely put a foot wrong.
Lamine Yamal has had a quiet knockout stage by his own standards, with a single goal since the group phase, though there are signs he is starting to find his rhythm again.
According to Lucky Rebel, France is the betting favorite against Spain, holding a narrow edge in the market to reach the final with a 40 percent implied win probability.
Spain remains a serious threat with a 29 percent chance of reaching only its second World Cup final, but the market still gives France the upper hand in this heavyweight semifinal.
Match Prediction: France 2-1 Spain
France should win a tight one, with goals at both ends more likely than another shutout given the attacking talent on the pitch.
Mbappe remains the shortest price in the anytime goalscorer market for good reason, and it would be a surprise if this game did not have his name on the scoresheet in some form, which keeps him firmly in the conversation for our Golden Boot odds tracker.
Spain’s record of finding a goal exactly when it needs one, through Mikel Merino’s two late winners already this tournament, makes backing the Spaniards to score a reasonable single match play even inside a France win.
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England vs. Argentina Prediction and Odds
Few fixtures in the sport carry as much history as this one.
From 1966, to Maradona’s Hand of God in 1986, to David Beckham’s red card in 1998, to the 2002 rematch that avenged it, this is the eighth World Cup meeting between these two nations and easily the highest profile tie of this round.
Both teams needed extra time to get here. England overturned a 1-0 deficit against Norway through a Jude Bellingham brace, with the second goal arriving three minutes into extra time.
Argentina led early against Switzerland through Alexis Mac Allister before conceding an equalizer, seeing out a red card to Breel Embolo, and eventually winning it through Julian Alvarez and Lautaro Martinez deep into the additional 30 minutes.
The case for England is straightforward. The Three Lions have matched their best ever tally of five wins in a single World Cup, a mark set during their 1966 triumph, and are the only side alongside France with two players on five or more tournament goals in Harry Kane and Bellingham.
The case for Argentina is that this side has now made back to back semifinals for the first time since 1986 and 1990, and has been here before under real pressure, having trailed Egypt by two goals with barely ten minutes left in the Round of 16 before an extraordinary turnaround.
Messi has eight goals in six matches and, even in a quarterfinal where he did not score himself, produced arguably the most influential individual performance of the entire round.
According to Lucky Rebel, England is the betting favorite against Argentina, holding a narrow edge in the market to reach the final.
England is currently rated around a 56 percent chance of winning this semifinal, compared with roughly 44 percent for Argentina. That makes it a tight contest, but one where England is still the side backed to progress.
Match Prediction: England 1-0 Argentina
This looks like one of the tightest semifinals of the tournament, with both sides carrying enough firepower to decide it in a moment.
England arrives with Bellingham in excellent form and Kane still central to its attack, while Argentina continues to lean on Messi’s control and Alvarez’s movement.
Argentina may have the slight edge because of its tournament control and Messi’s ability to dictate high pressure matches, but England’s midfield power keeps this very close.
A narrow, low scoring contest feels like the most likely outcome, and this could easily go to extra time or be settled by a single moment.
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World Cup 2026 Outright Odds
Lucky Rebel currently has France as the betting favorite to win the 2026 World Cup, with Les Bleus leading the outright market ahead of Spain.
France’s current price implies a 40 percent chance of lifting the trophy, while England sits next in line at around 23 percent.
Spain is priced narrowly behind England to lift its second World Cup with a 22 percent chance, while the market gives only a 20 percent chance to Argentina defending its title.
For the full breakdown of the outright market, check out our latest 2026 World Cup winner odds update.
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