The national media has crowned Fernando Mendoza as the face of the 2026 NFL Draft quarterback class. Mendoza won the Heisman Trophy and national championship while leading Indiana to an undefeated season.
But behind closed doors, the conversation is shifting — and now it’s spilling into the open.
ESPN analyst and former NFL quarterback Dan Orlovsky delivered his most direct take yet on Monday’s Get Up: “I think Ty Simpson is QB1. I think Ty Simpson is the best quarterback in this class.”
What made it land harder than a typical hot take was what came next. Former New York Jets GM Mike Tannenbaum confirmed that this isn’t Orlovsky’s opinion alone. In his conversations with clubs around the league, the belief that Simpson is the better prospect is shared.
In talking to clubs this opinion is shared by other teams as well https://t.co/kYLHgLHedy
— Mike Tannenbaum (@RealTannenbaum) March 23, 2026
The System Question Nobody Wants to Ask
To understand why this conversation is happening, you have to understand what each quarterback was actually asked to do.
“I think if you look at the body of work and what was asked of these two quarterbacks,” Orlovsky said. “You have to start with the question: who needed to do more to carry their football team to play well? Ty Simpson – and it’s not close.”
Mendoza operated within one of the most quarterback-friendly systems in college football: a high-octane RPO offense built around quick reads, elite perimeter weapons, and minimal downfield processing demands. The wins piled up. The Heisman followed. But the question Orlovsky is forcing evaluators to confront is: how much of that was Mendoza, and how much was the machine around him?
Simpson carried one of the most demanding jobs in college football. Operating a pro-style offense at Alabama with no scheme crutch, he was asked to process defenses, make decisions, and deliver throws that most college quarterbacks never attempt.
Where the Data Gets Complicated
“So, when it comes to moments of panic, and big throws – real NFL throws,” Orlovsky explained. “I think it’s clearly Ty Simpson.”
This is where honest analysis has to pump the brakes, because the advanced numbers don’t fully cooperate with the Simpson narrative.
According to Sumer Sports, Mendoza’s pressure-to-escape-attempt ratio was 23.1%, compared to Simpson’s 26%. In other words, Simpson was slightly more likely to bail on a pocket that could have been navigated. The exact behavior Orlovsky criticizes Mendoza for appears in Simpson’s film too, arguably at a higher rate.
The tough throw numbers cut even deeper. Mendoza attempted more tough throws — defined as high-difficulty, off-platform, or anticipatory deliveries — at a higher rate. Mendoza had a tough throw ratio of 2.4% rate compared to just 1.6% for Simpson.
If NFL evaluators are hunting for a quarterback willing to push the envelope downfield under duress, the data suggests Mendoza is actually more willing to pull the trigger.
What the Numbers Miss
Mendoza’s RPO system is specifically designed to reduce processing. The run threat manipulates defenders pre-snap, passing windows are schemed open, and reads are simplified. That makes his willingness to attempt tough throws more impressive, not less, and Mendoza consistently made plays when they mattered most.
Simpson’s higher escape rate has a cleaner explanation. He played behind an Alabama offensive line decimated by injury, forcing him into scrambles that a healthy pocket wouldn’t have required. More often than not, he wasn’t bailing on the play, he was scrambling out of necessity to keep drives alive.
The truth is: neither quarterback is perfect.
On tough throws, Mendoza holds a genuine edge, and the system context doesn’t soften it. And when it comes to escape rate, the injury situation provides real cover for Simpson.
Could The NY Jets Land The Steal of the 2026 NFL Draft?
Orlovsky says he’d rather have Simpson at picks 15–20 than Mendoza at No. 1.
The Jets have the No. 16 pick in the first round and have been one of the top landing spots for Simpson heading into the draft. Simpson has been vocal about his desire to play for the Jets, telling reporters at the NFL Combine that he “really, really” loves the Jets.
In his lone season as a starter, Simpson delivered at Alabama, posting a 64.5% completion percentage, 3,567 yards, 28 touchdowns, and only five interceptions. The Rose Bowl loss to Indiana has been used against him, but Tannenbaum attributed it to a depleted offensive line, not quarterback play.
The data creates doubt in both directions. Mendoza has stronger numbers in the categories that matter most to NFL evaluators. Simpson has the pedigree and the processing profile that scouts covet.
But when a former NFL quarterback and general manager go on the record to say Simpson is the better prospect, that’s worth taking seriously.
Simpson is rising at the right time and could end up being the biggest steal of the 2026 NFL Draft.
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