As we enter the final week of the 2024 baseball season, the local teams are planning for post season participation.
The Yankees have already clinched a spot and are looking to wrap up the division title tonight when they host the Orioles. The Mets still have some work to do but they have put themselves in position to avenge what happened two years ago.
The Mets have a two game lead over the Braves heading into their three game, showdown series beginning tonight at Truist Park. If the Mets take two of three from the Braves, they will clinch a playoff spot that seemed like a pipe dream just a few months ago. If they lost two of three, the Mets would only have a one game lead but would still control their own destiny, so they have to avoid, what would be another devastating sweep.
There has to be some trepidation amongst Mets’ fans because it’s the Braves who have ruined their season before. It was just two years ago that the Mets had a one game lead in the division and had a chance to bury them, but the Braves swept the three game, penultimate series of the season in Atlanta and that propelled them to the NL East title.
The sweep of the Mets gave the Braves the season series, 10-9, so, even though both teams won 101 games, Atlanta claimed the NL East title. The Mets had to play the Wild Card round but lost two of three to the Padres at Citifield and the rest is history.
So what’s it going to take this time around.
One of the keys will be to not allow Matt Olson to wreck the game.
Two years ago, Olson was 5 for 9 with three home runs (one in each game), 5 runs batted in and four runs scored in that late season three game sweep.
Olson feasted on the Mets rotation of Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt, all right handed pitchers. The only lefties that Olson saw were a young and inexperienced David Peterson and Joely Rodriguez out of the bullpen.
Olson has feasted on Mets pitching since he joined the Braves in 2022 and 2024 was no different. In ten games against the Mets this season, Olson has three home runs and seven RBIs.
Right hander Luis Severino, left hander David Peterson and the current ace, lefty Sean Manaea are lined up to start for the Mets.
Having Francisco Lindor back would go a long way towards having a successful series. Luisangel Acuna has done a commendable job filling in, but Lindor is the engine and there’s a reason he was in the MVP conversation. The Braves will miss Austin Riley, but the Mets won’t. The third baseman also has a history of enjoying Mets pitching.
The Braves are vulnerable so the Mets will not have a better opportunity to exact some revenge.
If (and it’s a big if) the Mets take care of business in Atlanta, the next step is who they would play in the Wild Card round. The Mets are currently a half game ahead of the Diamondbacks for the second spot. Arizona lost last night and the Mets have the tiebreaker as they won the season series. Speaking of revenge, if the season was over today, the Mets would be playing the Padres in San Diego.
After the Atlanta series, the Mets close the regular season with three in Milwaukee against the Brewers who already have the NL Central division wrapped up.
The Padres are the top Wild Card team but they trail the Dodgers by three games, and begin a three game series tonight in LA, so they feel like they still have a shot at the Division title, although that is a huge hill to climb.
It’s more likely the Padres will finish with the top WC spot and will host either the Mets or Diamondbacks (with the Braves looming as a possibility). The Brewers would host the Mets or Diamondbacks (with the Braves looming as a possibility).
By the time we get to the weekend, we’ll know a lot more about the National League playoff picture.
The Yankees would like to not only get the top spot in the AL East but also the best record in the league which would give them homefield advantage through the American League playoffs. Barring a complete collapse by the Yankees, the Orioles will host the 4 vs 5 series.
The Tigers have suddenly thrust themselves into the playoff picture and are tied with Kansas City for the second AL WC spot (Kansas City won the season series, 7-6). The Twins are a game back and the Mariners, who are a game and a half back are hanging by a thread.
Baltimore will be at Minnesota for the final weekend so they could have a say in how the Twins finish. The Twins struggled down the stretch and they will host Miami for three before they see the Orioles.
Detroit has a six game homestand against Tampa Bay and the lowly White Sox, the Royals play six on the road against the Nationals and Braves while the Mariners play two more at Houston (Astros need one win to clinch the AL West and would host the third AL WC team) and will host Oakland on the final weekend.
If the Yankees get the top spot in the AL, they would play the winner of the 4 vs 5 series and a potential opponent in the Orioles. If they get the second bye, that would set up an opponent from the 3 vs 6 series which could mean a meeting with the Astros in the ALDS.
It figures to be a wild finish to what has been a most unpredictable 2024 regular season.