Last season, the Arizona Diamondbacks, who finished with an 84-78 record, made a stunning post season run to the World Series.
Arizona took advantage of a weak National League field to even make the post season but they began their run with a two game sweep of the NL Central Champion Brewers in the Wild Card round.
In the Divisional Round, the Diamondbacks pulled off a stunning three game sweep of the 100-win, NL West Champion Dodgers and then came from behind to beat the Phillies in seven games in the National League Championship Series. The Phils won game five in Arizona to take a three games to two lead, but the Diamondbacks won games six and seven at Citizens Bank Park to win a most unlikely National League pennant, their first since 2001.
Could the Mets make a similar run in 2024? With the way they’re set up and with the right moves, it’s very possible.
After their loss to Colorado on Sunday, the Mets are 49-46 after 95 games. They are currently in the third NL WC spot, a game ahead of San Diego and Arizona. The Diamondbacks were 54-42 after 96 games in 2023, which was their high water mark last season.
The Diamondbacks went 30-36 the rest of the way. They had a nine game losing streak to begin the month of August and didn’t play that well down the stretch to zoom into the playoffs.
With four games left in the season, Arizona had a two game lead over their two main competitors, the Cubs and Marlins, but they lost four in a row to finish the season. However, the Cubs could not take advantage so Arizona and Miami made the playoffs.
The Mets will need to play better than Arizona did down the stretch last season in their final 68 games and it’s going to take that if they hope to get in. 41-27 is not out of the question for this Mets team because it may take 90 wins to qualify.
So what’s it going to take to make the post season:
The Players:
Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo have keyed the resurgence but it will be asking a lot for them to keep up the torrid pace they have set. Both are having solid seasons and their numbers will be there, but the Mets will need contributions from other sources.
Jose Iglesias has been a revelation but you can’t expect him to hit .500 with RISP for the remainder of the season. Iglesias has never been known for his offense but the Mets will ride him as much as possible.
J.D. Martinez has added a presence to the lineup and will get some big hits down the stretch, while Mark Vientos has grabbed the third base spot and run with it.
I have to admit I was wrong about Vientos but he will still have to make the adjustments that will be necessary for him to be a consistent everyday player.
Francisco Alvarez is the real deal and his ceiling has yet to be determined, but the Mets are set for the foreseeable future with a good young catcher.
Pete Alonso is not having a typical season but that doesn’t mean he can’t be a productive player in the final 68 games. Alonso is due to get on one of his power streaks where he slams a number of home runs in a short time.
Speaking of Alonso, another nonsensical narrative has developed. Last season, it was that he was “toxic” in the clubhouse. This year, it’s that he’s selfish because he insisted on being on the All Star team if he was to participate in the Home Run Derby, thereby costing a spot for his teammates Lindor and Nimmo, who were both deserving.
The fans who are calling Alonso selfish and saying Lindor should’ve been on the All Star team are the same ones who wanted no part of the Mets shortstop when he was struggling in the early part of the season.
Alonso is one of the best good guys in the sport and doesn’t deserve the criticism he has received over the past two seasons.
Yes, he’s not having a great season, and his name has been mentioned in trade talks, but the Mets would be making a huge mistake if they traded him at the deadline. He’s still well respected in that clubhouse and dealing him away would upset the chemistry that has developed with this year’s team.
The Moves:
The Mets achilles heel has been their bullpen depth because they have a reliable closer in Edwin Diaz. Last season, the Diamondbacks needed a closer and acquired Paul Sewald from Seattle at the trade deadline.
Sewald was never known as one of the best closers in the sport, but he had 13 saves in August and September while the D’Backs went 17-3 overall in the games that he appeared.
Obviously, the starting pitching will be relied upon but the Mets desperately need another reliable arm in the bullpen. Someone who could come in a save situation if Diaz is not available.
A’s closer Mason Miller will cost a ton. The Orioles probably have the best shot at acquiring the hard throwing right hander. Miami’s Tanner Scott has been mentioned but the Mets have reportedly been eyeing Angels closer Carlos Estevez, who is an impending free agent. With Estevez being a rental, the Angels will be looking to move him for some viable pieces, but they can’t ask for the moon and will not get caught losing him to free agency.
The 31-year old’s emergence this season has been with his improved command. In 31 IP, he’s given up 20 hits and walked only four batters. That’s a huge difference from his previous three seasons (2 with Colorado and 1 with the Angels) when he issued a total of 75 walks in 181 total IP.
The Schedule:
The Mets have done a good job making hay against teams under .500 but the schedule gets a bit tougher in the final 68 games.
There are two huge, 10-game road trips to navigate.
The first is a 10-game trek in August. It starts with three in Anaheim against the lowly Angels, who are 41-55 at the break. There is a make up game against the Cardinals in St. Louis and then the Mets go to Colorado (currently the 2nd worst winning percentage in baseball) for three and finish it up with three in Seattle.
The other long road trip is in late August. It begins with four in San Diego, three in Arizona and then three in Chicago against the White Sox, who currently have a .276 winning percentage. (As far as tiebreakers go, the Mets need one more win against the Padres and two out of three against Arizona to ensure they would hold the advantage).
Of their final 16 games, the Mets will have 13 consecutive games against NL East opponents with 10 against the Phillies and Braves (7 vs. Philly in a home and home and 3 on the road in Atlanta). The final three will be in Milwaukee against the Brewers, who could have the NL Central wrapped up by that point.
The Mets need to avoid an extended losing streak like Arizona had last August. If they can do that, add a bullpen arm or two and maybe another bat, then they have as good a chance as any team in the race to qualify for the post season.