Jets vs. Dolphins Odds: Sunday, November 21
It won’t be the quarterback match of Zach Wilson-Tua Tagovailoa that everyone expected at MetLife Sunday.
Instead, it will be a showdown between the underachieving 2-7 Jets and the 3-7 Dolphins.
Joe Flacco is back and will face off against Tua Tagovailoa. Flacco faced the Dolphins last season in relief of Sam Darnold, and he was harassed in a 24-0 loss. The veteran completed 21 of 44 passes for 186 yards with an interception and was sacked twice.
Flacco is the fourth Jets quarterback along with Wilson, Josh Johnson, and the fabled Mike White, who had four interceptions against Buffalo last week. Flacco made his first appearance this season replacing White.
Head coach Robert Saleh sent some shockwaves with the announcement, but he feels confident about Flacco.
“Joe has got the ability to process and get the ball in and out of his hands as quickly as possible,” said Saleh. “I have a lot of faith in Mike LaFleur and his ability to game-plan with his staff and put players in positions where there’s space to be had.
“But it goes back to Joe’s experience and recognizing coverages pre-snap and knowing exactly where the ball needs to get as quickly as possible to, one, avoid hits, but, two, get the ball where it needs to go in space.”
Flacco will be tested against Miami’s rising “Cover Zero” defense, which has caused 21 sacks and helped them to consecutive victories over Houston and Baltimore. They did an impressive job in shutting down the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson in Baltimore. The Jets have allowed 25 sacks.
Rookie running back Michael Carter has been the lone consistent brightspot, leading the team in rushing (367 yards) and tied with Jamison Crowder in receiving (31 catches). Rookie Elijah Moore is proving that he was a worth a top pick with his increased play on the outside.
Consequently, the Jets’ defense has been thrashed in their past four games, allowing 175 total points, and looking listless in the process. They have allowed 32 points per game, the worst in the league.
However, the Jets’ defense can bounce back against an inconsistent Dolphins’ offense.
Jets: Key Injuries
For the first time in weeks, the Jets are relatively healthy. Defensive lineman Nathan Shepherd (knee), and guard Elijah Vera-Tucker (toe) saw limited action in practice. Defensive lineman Shaq Lawson has a non-football related issue, and he didn’t practice all week.
Dolphins’ Offense/ Injuries
Tagovailoa came in relief of a struggling Jacoby Brissett against Baltimore, and he had a strong and effective outing, hitting eight of 13 attempts for 158 yards. He has spread the ball out among receivers Jayden Waddle (60 catches, three touchdowns) and DeVante Parker (25 catches, 1TD) and tight end Mike Gesicki (44 catches, 2 TDs). Waddle is 24 catches away from Jarvis Landry’s rookie record of 84 catches.
But Tagovailoa has five touchdowns and four interceptions overall and can be vulnerable.
Miami has tried to generate a running game all year, but they have only six touchdowns on the ground. One-time Jet Myles Gaskin leads the team with 344 yards, and he also has 38 catches with three touchdowns.
The Dolphins’ offense is ranked 29th, 21st with the pass and 32nd in rushing. Their 28th in scoring.
Like the Jets, the Dolphins have a number of plates with bumps and bruises and linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel (back) and defensive tackle Christian Wilkins (quad) are both listed as questionable.
The unit has been on the rise, and their blitzing schemes have raised their bar.
Yet, the Dolphins are still ranked near the bottom of the league (29th), issuing 273 yards passing and 109 rushing per game. They have made strides since their six-game losing streak, and raised their run defense to 15th overall. Defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah has five sacks and 23 tackles to set the pace.
If the Dolphins’ pressure continues Sunday, the 36-year-old Flacco will face a huge challenge.
The Jets and Dolphins usually have some entertaining games as the overall series is tied 55-55-1. New York has a turnover ratio of a league worst -15, while Miami has a -3.
This game will come down to the Jets’ offensive line against the Dolphins’s defensive front.
Miami is 5-5 against the spread, and New York is 2-7. The Jets have been 3.5-point or more underdogs eight times, and they have covered twice. The Dolphins are 1-4 against the spread on the road. New York has covered the spread twice at home, and is 2-2 overall there, this year. They have gone over the total in three of four games at home.
Over/Under is 44.5 (Take the under; over the last three years, the most points combined is 44.)
Line: Miami -3.5 (Take the Dolphins)
Moneyline: Miami -180, Jets + 155 (Avoid the pick)
Record against the spread: Jets are 2-7, and Miami is 5-5 (see more above)
Score: Miami 24-17.
Jets odds provided by Draft Kings Sports Book