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Bills vs. Jets Game Preview
The battle for New York is now led by the Buffalo Bills rather than in years past. The AFC East is also run by the Buffalo Bills who are 4-2. However, they are coming off two defeats at the hands of the Kansas City Chiefs and Tennessee Titans. This was a difficult stretch for the Bills who expect to get back on track in this one. The Jets have not put up much resistance this season, with an embarrassing 0-6 record.
Jets coach Adam Gase is expecting Sam Darnold to return behind center for the winless team. The line started at Bills -10 before trending even higher to nearly 13 points. With the announcement that Darnold is expected to play despite a shoulder injury, the line has been corrected to 11.5. The games total is set at a responsible 46. It is important to note that the Bills and Jets have only scored 43 points in their last 2 games COMBINED. The under could very well be in play here, which hit at a 70% rate in week 6.
Bills vs. Jets Complete Odds
|Bills vs. Jets 1 PM EST||Game Odds|
|Odds Provided By||DraftKings|
|Opening Spread||BUF: -10 NYJ: +10|
|Current Spread||BUF: -11.5 NYJ: +11.5|
|Moneyline||BUF: -530 NYJ: +400|
|Super Bowl Odds||BUF: +2200 NYJ: +100000|
Odds provided by DraftKings.
How To Watch/Listen To The Bills
- Date: Sunday Oct. 25
- Time: 1 PM EST
- Location: MetLIfe Stadium (Rutherford, NJ)
- TV: CBS
- Commentators: Greg Gumbel, Rich Gannon, AJ Ross
- Radio: WGR 550 AM (Buffalo)/ ESPN New York 98.7
NFL Week 7 Injury Report
John Brown was originally listed as questionable for the Bills. He was seen limping all over the field for Monday night’s game against the Chiefs and did not practice this week. Rather than have him less than 100%, he is being listed as out for this week against the Jets.
Dawson Knox their tight end is questionable and has not practiced yet this week. Dawson Knox is on the wrong side of questionable so far.
Matt Milano at Linebacker has logged two limited practices so far this week. He played against the Chiefs and should play this week too.
New York Jets
Sam Darnold is the biggest questionable tag of the week. Adam Gase is unsure if he will play this week but he was limited in practice on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. This definitely puts him on track to play but anyone’s guess is as good as Gase’s.
Mekhi Becton was limited in practice on Wednesday which theoretically set him to return for Sunday’s game. Gase was quoted as saying, “he should be good barring some crazy setback.” The Jets time under Gase could be considered, “a crazy setback.” So until he’s officially active and playing, I will believe it when I see it.
Breshad Perriman was also limited on Wednesday. He played last week so he is expected to play on Sunday.
AFC East Standings After Week 6
- Buffalo Bills 4-2
- New England Patriots 2-3
- Miami Dolphins 3-3
- New York Jets 0-6
Implied Winning Probability
A sharp statistic for the biggest of bettors in the country. Implied winning probability is huge for the casual bettor all the same. In layman’s terms, implied winning probability is the percent chance each team has of winning a game. For bettors who are experienced with vigs by sportsbooks this is how you calculate the vig being charged.
In this bet, the Bills are -530 to win. The implied winning probability for the Bills is 84.13%. The New York Jets are +400 to win Sunday’s contest. This would give them a 20% chance to win the game. The vig is higher than DraftKings typically takes from their straight bets, at 4.13%.
Is the Bills offense actually sputtering? Josh Allen over the Bills first 4 games was averaging 331.5 passing yards per game. This has come crashing down to 192.5 yards per game in their last two games. Furthermore, Allen had a 70.9 completion rate with twelve touchdowns and one interception. In his last two, Allen is completing passes at just a 58.8% with 4 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. This is a “get right matchup” for Allen but he won’t need to throw the ball very much at all to win this one. We will truly know the answer to this question during the next two games against the Patriots and Seahawks.
The Jets are the only team to be 0-6 ATS. Oddsmakers literally build odds to make up for ineptitude by teams like the Jets. Somehow, the Jets are actually worse than oddsmakers can even account for. The line of 11.5 seems generous even with Sam Darnold. The Bills are one of the best-coached teams in the league and the Jets quit on Le’Veon Bell. If the Bills show up and not sleepwalk, they should cover early and not relinquish that lead.
The Bills have an average margin of victory of only 5.8 points. This makes it very difficult to lay nearly two touchdowns down as a cover. To be clear, there is no reason to believe in the Jets who truly detest Adam Gase. But when you see the Bills offensive play of the last few weeks you will see that this team goes where Josh Allen can take them. Furthermore, Devin Singletary and Zack Moss have looked extremely inadequate at running back. This led them to try to sign Le’Veon Bell. I will not be taking the spread, but these offenses will struggle to put up points.
DraftKings Best Bet: Full Game Total Touchdowns: Under 5.5 -190
Bills vs. Jets Prop Bets
All odds are presented by the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Josh Allen to score a touchdown +100
Josh Allen is their goal line back. He should easily get one touchdown in this one. To score 2+ touchdowns is +475 which is not quite juicy enough for my blood. Either way, Josh Allen should not find it challenging to get into the end zone.
Josh Allen Passing Yards: Under 280.5 -110
The numbers are listed above. In shootout games, Josh Allen was throwing for 331.5 passing yards per game. He has averaged just 192.5 in his last two games, the Jets will not be competitive enough for him to throw consistently.
Jamison Crowder to score a touchdown +225
The only good receiver on the Jets is the only touchdown prop bet that I would take. He is consistent, creates space and Breshad Perriman will get the matchup with Tre’Davious White. Crowder could be in for a heavy workload, expect him to go over his receptions total as well, which is not yet available.