Value picks and prop bets are located at the bottom of the page
Chiefs vs. Bills Game Preview
The best team in New York (BY FAR) is here to make a statement against the defending Super Bowl champs! After a wacky week that featured the rare Tuesday night game, the Buffalo Bills will faceoff against the Super Bowl champion Chiefs. This will be a tough matchup for Buffalo especially with difficult practice and travel schedule. They were beat for the first time against a well rested Titans team. Overall, the Bills looked unprepared and overmatched against the Titans.
Likewise, the Chiefs did not look too prepared themselves against the Raiders last week. The Raiders put up 40 points on the Chiefs defense who struggled across the board. The Chiefs were able to add star running back Le’Veon Bell from the New York Jets. He will be a welcomed addition to an already loaded Chiefs offense. He will not be eligible to play until next week however. The over/under has the highest point total of the week at 57.5. There should be a ton of points in this game as both defenses are coming off of extremely lackluster performances.
Chiefs vs Bills Complete Odds
|Chiefs vs. Bills 1 PM EST||Game Odds|
|Odds Provided By||DraftKings|
|Opening Spread||KC: -3.5 BUF: +3.5|
|Current Spread||KC: -4 BUF: +4|
|Moneyline||KC: -220 BUF: +190|
|Super Bowl Odds||KC: +400 BUF: +2000|
Odds provided by DraftKings.
How To Watch/Listen To The Bills
- Date: Mon, Oct. 19
- Time: 8:00 PM EST
- Location: Bills Stadium (Buffalo, New York)
- TV: FOX
- Commentators: Joe Buck, Troy Aikman
- Radio: WGR 550 AM (Buffalo)/ 106.5 FM The Wolf (Kansas City)
NFL Week 6 Injury Report
Josh Norman was eviscerated last week against Tennessee. He was thrown like a dart by Derrick Henry on a sorry tackle attempt. Perhaps he still has a lingering hamstring injury but he will be active against the Chiefs.
Tre’davious White the best player on the Bills defense, is listed as questionable. He missed last week’s game but practiced this week. Expect him to play in a big Monday night game.
Matt Milano went out during the Titans game last week. He has been banged up all season; he’s truly going to be a game time decision.
John Brown missed last week’s game shockingly against the Titans. He is listed as probable for this one.
Zack Moss is back after a lengthy absence with a toe injury. He is probable and will suit up.
Kansas City Chiefs
La’Jarius Snead is out indefinitely due to a collarbone injury that he sustained a few weeks ago. The defense has not been the same since losing him.
Sammy Watkins is also out for this game with a hamstring injury. Another tough loss, expect Mecole Hardman to take over in his place.
Le’Veon Bell was acquired by the Chiefs on Thursday. He is not injured but he does need to pass COVID-19 protocol before he can join the team. He will not suit up this week but could be ready next week.
AFC East Standings At Week 6
- Buffalo Bills 4-1
- New England Patriots 2-2
- Miami Dolphins 2-3
- New York Jets 0-5
Implied Winning Probability
Ever wonder what your true probability is to win a bet? Well look no further than calculating implied winning probability. It is one of the most important resources that bettors have. It not only calculates your odds of winning a bet but it also calculates the vig that your book is charging. Some sportsbooks could try to get away with outrageously large vigs and some are reasonable. This could be especially important if you are a fan of same game parlays or prop bets. The vigs can be specifically large here so make sure you are being cognizant of these projections.
In this game, the Chiefs are rather large favorites at -220. They are only 4 point favorites so the higher moneyline price is a bit surprising. -220 gives them a 68.75% chance to win Monday’s game. The Bills are a +190 underdog which just lends them to just 34.48% chance to win the game. The vig is about what DraftKings normally charges, barely over 3%.
By The Numbers
This game has shootout potential written all over it and the sportsbooks know it. 57.5 is a massive number and one of the biggest so far this season. A frequently talked about stat on this site is yards per play. The Buffalo Bills are fourth in yards per play this year. The Chiefs are eighth in yards per play. Two top teams with explosive weapons should be able to tack on the points at will.
Josh Allen has taken another leap forward this year too. He is second in passing yards this year to only Dak Prescott (injured). He could easily run away with the passing yard title this year. If there is any contender to dethrone him it is Patrick Mahomes who throws the ball downfield as well as anyone since Brett Favre. The Bills are 29th in passing yards given up at 280.25 per game. It will be a shootout that the Bills could win. Best bet is the over but the Bills can keep up with the Chiefs.
DraftKings Best Bet: Over 57.5
Chiefs vs Bills Prop Bets
All odds are presented by the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Patrick Mahomes over 305.5 yards -112
More Mahomes props, in shootouts the Chiefs go where Mahomes takes them. The Buffalo Bills feature by far the worst passing defense they have faced all year. He should have a feast against is secondary.
Patrick Mahomes over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns +138
Clyde Edwards-Helaire has scored 1 rushing touchdown this season. In fact, Patrick Mahomes has more rushing touchdowns than the star rookie running back. I’m actually more afraid that Mahomes will get a short yard rushing touchdown in this one. He has only done it twice this year and this game figures to be their biggest shootout of the year. He also threw for 4 in a big game against the Baltimore Ravens. 2.5 seems about right but it should be -110 rather than plus money
Josh Allen to score a touchdown +115
Do you know who leads the NFL in qb rushing touchdowns since 2019 began? You’d probably guess Lamar Jackson but it is not. Josh Allen is the NFL leader with 12. He has been extremely impressive this year. He’s a great bet to get in the end zone without much production coming from their running backs.