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  • dak11
    replied
    Problem with His completion % is a little misleading last year. He was under constant pressure and had a lot of dropped passes. Not sure if this is accurate but I saw on one site that 7% of his passes were drops last year - 21 total. All QB's have drops but if you add them in he was right around 60% completion while getting killed - 45 sacks.

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  • MrHat
    replied
    I'd be pushing for this is Manning wasn't here....but it becomes a lower acceptable cost with him still here. We'd basically be "wasting" 2 years of Rosen's rookie deal - and I look at even our 2nd round pick as very valuable in this draft given the Giants needs. This is a deal where even for a 2nd I wouldn't make until draft day and seeing whats on the table at 6 and 17.... If you snag an edge rusher and a RT - then okay I'd take the gamble on Rosen.... But I like Haskins better so if he's there at 6 I'd rather just take him and move on. I think Rosen and Lock are on a similar level - Lock with a lower floor definitely, but higher ceiling and none of the extraneous concerns (injury, attitude, leadership)....so if Lock was there at 17 I'd grab him over trading for Rosen. You get past those 2 picks without your QB - then I'm open to the move. I doubt Arizona wants to wait that long....



    My stance on Rosen has always been at his ceiling he's Phillip Rivers. He has all the tools to be a good QB, but 1. I'm not sure he's a real deal leader/winner. 2. I don't think his attitude / personality would fly in NY - just like Rivers.

    Not that all teams are smart...but there's a lot of reasons he was QB4 from that draft when he walked into that season and even up until probably Jan as at worst QB2. I know last year wasn't ideal for him, but what alarms me on Rosen is his completion % above all else when that was his supposed strength coming out. He completed pretty much the same % as a known inaccurate QB in Josh Allen and I don't think there was vastly superior talent, scheme, coaching, in Buffalo that was enabling Allen vs. Arizona limiting Rosen.

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  • dak11
    replied
    You are right, probably not enough value coming back unless you think Rosen is worth a late 1st round value. Using the value chart as a guide, I realize teams don't use it as much as in the past, that difference between the 17th pick and Arizona 3rd round (#65) would be 685 points which would put that right around pick 27 on the chart.

    It all comes down to how the Giants view Rosen and how much of a discount can they feel they can get on him. I wasn't a fan of his last year but I think I'd be willing to take a shot on him if they get a pretty big discount on him. I'm on board if he costs pick 37 and I could be open to that pick 17 depending on what else in involved. I wouldn't do pick 17 straight up. I still think that NE will ultimately put pick 32 in play for him which will let them get him at a pretty big discount but also allow Arizona to say they got a 1st rounder back for him.

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  • MrHat
    replied
    Even for a 3rd coming back I wouldn't give up 17. The a Giants would likely have the best of those 2nd rounders being offered anyways. Rosen was the 10th pick last year....had a crap year even for a rookie qb...and needs to be dealt. Plus specifically with ny he'd be spending at least 1/2 this season on the bench.

    I really don't see anyone giving up a first unless it's a future contingent pick....

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  • dak11
    replied
    Seems Colin Coherd is reporting that he knows that 3 teams are offering a 2nd rounder for Rosen and the Giants are one of those 3 teams. No idea how he's know the teams or that the Giants offered pick 37 but he claims Arizon is waiting for a 1st rounder and the Giants are discussing the 17th pick.

    Personally, I wouldn't deal the 17th straight up for him. That seems a little bit too pricey, especially given his struggles last year, the Cards need to deal him if they're planning to take Murray, and the talk that the Giants weren't all that high on him last year. For me if they want that 17th pick then they'll have to add a pick (probably their 3rd) with Rosen in return for me to be ok with the value coming back. .

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  • dak11
    replied
    I think you're reading too much into this. All those QB's should have private workouts with the Giants and it could be that the rest of them have already talked to or seen him at the senior bowl. I get that they also saw Lock but were at that Pro Day. The fact that the NFL meetings were also happening probably were a factor in the other guys not making it.

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  • MrHat
    replied
    I like this sign...it sounds like only Shula went to see Jones' pro day. Read what you will into it but the Giants had Shurms, Shula, Getty, scouts, etc at Haskins, Lock, Murray.... They all be in for private workouts, and obviously those other schools have loads more players to scout

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  • MrHat
    replied
    Well in this I think they are right - even the best non-QB in football doesn't add wins to a team like in the NBA or even I'd argue baseball. Perfect example is OBJ....or even Barkley. That said when you have a top talent at the right position - those top 5 picks become invaluable. This might be one of those years where the D-Line talent is so off the charts high that they can actually carry an entire unit. You get an insane disruptive force in the pass rush and all of a sudden that mediocre secondary becomes a lot better....that marginal pass rusher on the edge gets a lot more 1 on 1s...etc. If I was drafting 1-3 in this draft I wouldn't move any of those picks to be honest they look worth their wait in gold - Outside of that? I think its fine to trade down. I'm not convinced Sweat/White/Taylor/etc are anything more than very good players (see Collins)...which is great as icing on the cake, but for most of the teams drafting in the top 10 they need so much more that I'd be happy to take 2 good players over 1 very good player in the NFL at most positions.

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  • dak11
    replied
    Not sure if you guys read this weeks Peter King article but it has a part that discusses how the 2017 Nobel Prize winner in economics thinks about draft picks. Below are some points he makes.

    1. He co-wrote a widely read paper in 2005 on the value of NFL draft choices (“We find that top draft picks are overvalued in a matter that is inconsistent with rational expectations”), laying out a treatise that the best draft choices actually are those low in the first round and through the second round.

    2. He thought Oakland made the best transaction of the year by dealing Mack.

    3. Bellichek must follow his advise as he also states " I’d trade down every year. If I had a pick in the top 10, and I wasn’t drafting a quarterback, I’d want to trade down every year. There is value in multiple high picks versus one pick in the top 10.”

    4. He believes the only way to win in football is to have players who play better than their salaries.

    5. Thaler’s no fan of the Cowboy’s draft-trade value chart, by the way. “Teams still use that stupid chart,” he said. “That chart overvalues high picks. It’s a joke. High picks, to me, are over-valued stocks. Smart teams should have a portfolio manager, to basically analyze every draft decision or trade.” And he thinks football teams should have staffs of analytics experts; most teams only have one, if any.

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  • MrHat
    replied
    Don't over think this.... It Haskins is there at 6 take him. If not go defense.

    If Lock is there at 17 take him. If not go tackle or defense.

    If you build the lines and D this year you can sell out your entire draft in 2020 to get a QB.

    That said my preference is to just get Haskins or Lock and be done. I'm okay moving a 3rd to move up a slot or two but I don't think this year is the year to sell everything to move up

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  • dak11
    replied
    I'm starting to change my thinking on those 2 first round picks. Early on I was all for building the team the rest of the team and then going all in on 2020 for a QB. I'm starting to think the problem with that is that I'm not sure the Giants will be any worse next year than they were this year (5 wins) so I don't think they'll be in that top 5 area which would make things easier to move up. I think Barkley all by himself could win 2-3 games and Manning is not as bad as people make him out to be they could win a couple more games. My view of Manning has always been that outside of those 2 playoff runs he's been an average QB who really has never been a QB who can take over a game and win it almost all by himself. But, since they didn't move on and fully 'tank' the season I think this could be another 5-6 win team which would normally put them more in the 7-10 area of the first round. From there it would cost a lot to move up to a top 2-3 spot to get one of these QB's and that's IF the teams up there don't need, or want, those QB's.

    I do not want to start up the Barkley/Darnold argument again even though the Barkley pick looks like the wrong move given the record last year and the continued need for a QB. So my thinking has moved from taking the BPA in the first/2nd and looking to get a QB next year to taking a QB and giving that QB (and Manning) the best chance to compete by finishing the O-line. With that thinking I'm starting, not fully on board yet but moving that way, to taking a QB this year and adding one of the tackles with the other pick. I'm not fully sold on either Haskins, Jones, or Lock but the best way to develop a QB IMO is to give him a good O-line where he'll have time and not running for his life. I realize the D needs a pass rusher and star player but scheming can cover some of that up and with $100 mil available next year in FA, plus a probable early 1st round pick, the D can be built moving forward.

    If they feel Haskins can be the guy and he's there then I'm fine with taking him at pick 6. Then at pick 17 they can look towards guys like Dillard (hear he's really moving up boards and couple be a top 10 guy), Johna Williams (who brings Alabama pedigree and can play both RT/LT), Ford (though there are concerns he can stay at T) or Risner.

    If Haskins is gone or they like (shudder) Jones better then they can add the best T in the draft in Jawaan Taylor at 6 followed by Jones/Lock at 17 (even use some draft capital to move up a couple spots if needed.).

    I just keep thinking that if they go BPA and add 2 defenders in the first than they are setting themselves up to be in that 5-7 win area again which is not bad enough to really be in the 2020 QB derby. Use the first 2 picks to solidify the offense and allow Barkley to play up to his abilities and then use most of the other picks this year in trying to help the D.

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  • MrHat
    replied
    I'd rather see them trade for like Jacoby Brisset than bother with Jones. Hell I'd rather see them just use a 3rd or 4th on someone like Finley or Jackson or Stidham or even taking a really late like 5th or 6th round stab at Thorson. Jones just looks like a bigger, less accurate, version of Lauletta to me....maybe at his absolute ceiling he's what Eli is now + some mobility....Eli now is still pretty far from Eli 2009

    After the combine there was reports that Haskins impressed the Giants in his interview which is why the Russini report seemed odd....but who knows. 1/2 of these smoke screens aren't even from the Giants its from media folks trying to get clicks....

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  • dak11
    replied
    Schefter dropped this nugget in his podcast recently. We obviously have no idea if true and value of players involved is pretty subjective.


    “I know, know, there were other teams that offered the Giants more than the Browns did for Odell Beckham Jr. So if the Browns are coming in with this offer that the Giants thought was good, why not — and I’ve never made a trade like this — but why not say ‘hey listen that’s a great offer, give us 24 hours, we want to see what else is available before we make this deal with you. What was the rush on March 12?”

    I'm starting to get on the Lock bandwagon at 17 if he's there and they go D with the 6th pick. I like him a lot better than Jones and while he's a risk taker he has a lot more throwing ability. He'd be a bit more risk/reward but that's better than drafting the next Andy Daulton and being a perrenial 8-8 type team. Giants also had dinner with Haskins last night prior to OH Pro Day. Doesn't seem like something teams would do if there's not some level of interest. If they are looking to go Jones I'd prefer to see them trade back into the late 1st for him than use either 6 or 17 on him.
    Last edited by dak11; 03-20-2019, 09:04 AM.

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  • MrHat
    replied
    Originally posted by OrangeNblueNmyVeins View Post
    He said yes and no during that interview. I think that DG has proven you can't gauge anything hes going to do by what he says. Could be all smokescreen to bait a team to trade up etc. Bottomline is the Giants are in a position to go many different directions during the draft.
    Maybe but last year all he was saying was he was going to take BPA and loved Barkley. So I don't know that this comment was just a smoke screen. I think its very much open to was he talking about #6 or #17 or trading #17 for like Rosen.... but honestly given his track record on draft statements I think I'd be a little surprised if he walked away without a QB.

    Unfortunately I kind of agree with Dak. My only hope is that teams are more content to wait for things to fall for them which maybe leads to a spot where the Giants could move up a couple of slots from 17 to snag Lock. -- Tho in fairness Gettleman passed on 3 top flight (so we're told) QBs last year to draft the best guy in the draft. Should we really believe that this year he's going to "reach" for Jones this year over the guys who will likely be available @ 17? I go back to he's looking at someone expecting a fall.... OR he's got a plan B to trade for a Rosen or a highly thought of "backup"
    Last edited by MrHat; 03-19-2019, 03:31 PM.

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  • dak11
    replied
    Originally posted by MrHat View Post
    Gettleman says he'll have Eli's heir on the roster and in the first round if all goes as planned..... no idea what to make of that
    Keeps pointing to Jones at 17 to me.

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