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Update 7/17

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  • Update 7/17

    Took a little break with the all-star games. Now we're back to some interesting 2nd half story lines

    AAA

    Rosario was slumping a bit heading late June. Many thought the rumblings of a callup might have him pressing. Well forget that....in July he's hitting .457 with an ops over 1.000.

    What's surprised me about his season thus far has been the SB. He's got 17 this year. He swiped 19 last year between A/AA (career high), but the vast majority of them were in A ball..only 6 in 220 AA ABs. . He'll definitely set a career high and he's getting it done at about a 75% clip.


    Smith has been overshadowed but dude had a 6 RBI game about 10 days ago, 2 days after a 4 RBI game. He's hitting .420 in his last 10. Much like Rosario just largely waiting for the Mets to open up a spot for him.


    Gavin Cecchini has been up and down on the AAA/MLB train this year. He's still not catching fire at AAA....stuck around .250, but I still contend he's ready and needs some MLB time. His defense @ 2B has drastically improved. He's at 9 errors (total between 2B/SS) this year after making 34 / 28 / 27 the last few years.

    Luis Mateo was the latest older AA pitcher to get bumped to fill in at AAA. He's fared about as well as the rest. Pitching to a 6.75 era.

    Again the only pitcher to me worth noting at all here is McGowan who again is on one of his good streaks. 2 Runs in his last 15 innings. ERA for the season is down to 3.86 which given the team's ERA is around 5 this year...is pretty good.

    The team overall has been horrible, last place despite all the offensive talent because the pitching has been an even bigger disaster than the MLB roster. It's a shame because it probably hurts Viola's and Pedro Lopez' chances in succeeding TC after the season....they both deserve a look too.


    AA

    PJ Conlon continues to be mediocre - ERA around 4.50 over his last 10 starts. Smoke and mirrors ran out of tricks. Nothing to see here.

    Chris Flexen picked right back up where he left off after the all-star break going 8 innings 1 run 9 K's. Dude is legit. Just needs to stay healthy and we'll be talking about him helping sometime next year. He's now 5-1 1.73 era - 43 K's just 4 BB - 0.67 WHIP. Those are some video game stats right there. STUD.

    Macos Molina hasn't had that kind of success, but he's been better than his AA numbers indicate. He's 0-5 with a 4.95 ERA, but most of his starts come down to 1 bad inning. He'll give up 3-4 runs in 1 inning and go 6 total. Tho I will admit his last 2 starts have been legit bad...lots of hits, dodging bullets, etc. It'll be an important 2nd half for him to work thru those issues.

    Corey Oswalt has just been consistently good. I still don't see much there in terms of MLB staying power, but its hard to argue with the results. He's been a machine going 6 innings with 2 or less ER 10 of his 15 starts this year. After 2 more outings fitting that bill he sits at 7-3 2.30 ERA. He's been healthy, he's added a bit of velocity this year, but he's still largely a contact pitcher who's just having one of "those" kind of years.

    Tomas Nido returned from the futures game and....has done a whole lot of nothing. He had a terrible April...a great May, but has been pretty poor since. He's got a lot to prove down the stretch here with guys breathing down his neck and as much as we're all kind of done with Plaw, dude is hitting .335 in AAA. So you're going to need a big season to displace him at AAA next year.

    The B Mets are currently in 2nd place, fighting the Phils (1/2 game back) with no real chance of catching the Yankees....

    A

    Now the real news.....

    Tim Tebow.... he's actually doing pretty well. All phases of his game have improved since he's returned to his magical power source of Florida. He's got an .877 OPS. 7 BB and 11 K's in 60 ABs. Drastically better than his 70 K's in 200 ABs.

    The pitching all moved up to AA.

    Andrew Church was having a decent year, but that's tanked in his last 6 or so starts. ERA went from 3.60 to 5.14. Oh well.

    Justin Dunn was looking like he was finally getting his feet, but then got rocked for 6 ER in 5 innings last time out. In his previous 6 starts he had rocked an era a shade below 3. Still probably the most disappointing prospect in the Org.

    OR

    That could go to Becerra. Who continues to do nothing. As I said the first part of this year was just making sure he could get and stay on the field. Well that's past now. Now its time to produce. He's hitting an empty .278 with 12 K's in 36 ABs in his last 10 games.

    Peter Alonso is doing his best to salvage a slow start and injury riddled season. He's been crushing it, hitting .350 over his last 10. He's up to 8 HRs on the year. We're going to hear a ton about him in AA next year. Legit legit 30 HR power. So for those not sold on Smith - this is the next guy inline.

    Patrick Mazeika just keeps hitting. Such a great line drive swing. Still needs work behind the plate, but look dude is hitting .300 with an OPS over .800 and with Nido not lighting up AA, there's a path for him to move.

  • #2
    Good stuff Hat.. disappointed to hear about buecerra.. guess the fizzle is gone..oh well..

    So with team scouting Addison read a lot good chance he gets moved.. can you envision anybody down there in the minors being giving a shot to hit the pen?

    ACCEPTED TRUTH: That I will be ROYALLY F**CKED OVER by EVERY TEAM I ROOT FOR (METS, JETS & KNICKS) !!!

    Citifield & Mets...the place where Sluggers Careers go to DIE"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uTLzr2Al_Os

    Comment


    • #3
      McGowan is it, but he's a long man. There's nothing in AAA...all veteran AAA types. That's most of AA as well. The next round of mets arms for the pen or rotation won't be ready until well into next season.

      McGowan throws 95+ and has a decent change. Control of his slider has been an issue this year. For whatever reason they've generally been using him 2+ inning stints. Not sure why they wouldn't see what he could give them over just 1 inning. But he's a big dude - 6'5" 240. So he's got the frame to handle a lot of innings. I'd like to see him get a shot at some point this year.

      Outside of that everyone in AAA is 27+ years old and doing terrible. It shouldn't be much of surprise when we're reaching down there for Robles, Geodell, and somehow Montero and Ramirez are still on the ML roster. Sewald was it in AAA...and he's been okay for us.

      AA is in even worse shape to be honest. Anyone with a scrap of talent (Baldanado, Peterson, Mateo) was pulled up to AAA and they have sucked hard there. Corey Burns is their closer and his era is around 6.

      In A ball there's some interesting guys, but it's A ball...it means even as a bullpen guy they are at least a year, probably 2 away. Their closer - Tyler Bashlor has 60 K's in 34 innings...but also 24 walks. Kevin Canelon is a lefty with some great movement on his pitches. He's probably been their best, reliever, but he's also been used as a swingman getting a handful of starts. He's not a specialist, in fact lefties hit him better than righties....he leans on a very refined change and a low 90s fastball. But a lefty that struggles vs. lefties probably limits his future.

      Really their best bullpen guy is probably Justin Dunn...who they are trying to keep as a starter, but it just hasn't been working out. He's one of the Mets top 5 prospects. As a starter in A ball he's 2-6 with an era around 6. As a reliever (he was backing Flexen/Molina when they started their comebacks) he's 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA. Normally I'm one to say lets give this guy more time as a starter with a 97 mph fastball, but he clearly runs out of gas in the 4th or 5th.....The sooner they come to grips with him being a potentially dominating reliever the better. He could be the Mets Betances who ran into similar struggles for the Yankees when he hit high A ball.

      Last edited by MrHat; 07-19-2017, 07:32 AM.

      Comment


      • #4
        I can't believe I forgot to mention this but....

        A

        Merandy Gonzalez got the bump to high A -

        In 4 starts he's been dominating - 1.99 ERA. He was 8-1 in low A with a 1.50 era. He was top 15 this year on the Mets prospect list...he'll definitely be top 10 next year...maybe even top 5 considering how much guys like Dunn, Lindsay, Becerra, have struggled and Alonso, Kay, Szupucki have all been injured. He throws 95+ with a great curveball. The question is, much like Dunn, his size. 6'1" 190.

        Jordan Humphreys also got the bump. I compare him to Corey Oswalt. Not dominating, but he knows how to pitch. Low 90s fastball, above average curve...below average changeup which he needs to improve to move forward. He's on the top 20 list...but barely.

        Comment


        • #5
          Man...depressing....and you touched on a point with Justin Dunn.. seems like the Mets are doing a poor job in identifying relievers by using starters and converting them early in their careers... now this year it looks like they purposely drafted some relievers so let's see how that works out.
          ACCEPTED TRUTH: That I will be ROYALLY F**CKED OVER by EVERY TEAM I ROOT FOR (METS, JETS & KNICKS) !!!

          Citifield & Mets...the place where Sluggers Careers go to DIE"

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uTLzr2Al_Os

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by 86mets View Post
            Man...depressing....and you touched on a point with Justin Dunn.. seems like the Mets are doing a poor job in identifying relievers by using starters and converting them early in their careers... now this year it looks like they purposely drafted some relievers so let's see how that works out.
            The temptation is to look at a kid who has 4 quality pitches and at least give him a shot as a starter...so I don't begrudge them for giving it a go....especially because he did so well at Brooklyn.... At this point I guess you might as well let him finish the season and see if anything turns around, but if not, I'd start him as a reliever next year with an eye to bumping him up to AA quickly.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by MrHat View Post

              The temptation is to look at a kid who has 4 quality pitches and at least give him a shot as a starter...so I don't begrudge them for giving it a go....especially because he did so well at Brooklyn.... At this point I guess you might as well let him finish the season and see if anything turns around, but if not, I'd start him as a reliever next year with an eye to bumping him up to AA quickly.
              I totally agree! Justin Dunn is the minor league pitcher of the year. He was 8-8 with 154 strikeouts in AA and A ball.

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