NY Jets Vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Odds And Analysis

Joshua Sarner/Icon Sportswire

When they first met on Nov. 21, the possibility of the quarterback showdown between the Jets’ Zach Wilson and the Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa was an intriguing one. However, it never happened because of Wilson’s injury. Replacement QB Joe Flacco did a workmanlike job in a  24-17 loss.

Sunday in Miami, the showdown will finally happen with both teams heading in different directions. The Dolphins (6-7) have won five straight and are in the playoff hunt, while the Jets (3-10) have been officially eliminated from the postseason and are looking to end the year on a high note.

Jets coach Robert Saleh said hopes his team can soon play meaningful games in December like Sunday’s counterpart.

“December football is different,” Saleh said. “It is different in terms of being in the hunt, getting ready to play for a chance to go get into the dance and play for a championship. That is a big deal. And to understand that Miami’s in the playoff hunt, they’re bringing a different style than we saw a few weeks ago. It’s going to be different. And to understand the intensity level and feel that intensity level, capture that intensity level and embrace it.”

In large part, because the Dolphins have something to play for and the Jets do not, the betting odds at most sportsbooks have the Dolphins favored by nearly double digits.

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NY Jets Vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Odds

DraftKingsJets +9.5 (-110)
Dolphins -9.5 (-110)
Jets +330
Dolphins -435
Over 41 (-110)
Under 41 (-110)
BetMGMJets +9.5 (-110)
Dolphins -9.5 (-110)
Jets +360
Dolphins -450
Over 41 (-110)
Under 41 (-110)
CaesarsJets +9.5 (-110)
Dolphins -9.5 (-110)
Jets +340
Dolphins -440
Over 41 (-110)
Under 41 (-110)
FanDuelJets +9.5 (-110)
Dolphins -9.5 (-110)
Jets +320
Dolphins -420
Over 41 (-110)
Under 41 (-110)

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It’s All About Zach Wilson For The Jets

Wilson is coming off a sloppy performance in a 30-9 loss to New Orleans last week in which he completed 19 of 42 passes for 202 yards without a touchdown. Wilson, who scored rushing touchdowns in the two previous weeks, rushed for 33 yards on four carries and was sacked three times.

For the year, Wilson has completed 160 of 285 passes for 1,741 yards with six touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He has 17 carries for 58 yards rushing, and the offensive line has given up 28 sacks

Yet, for the final four games, the spotlight is still on Wilson. He will need to deal with Miami’s active, blitzing defense labeled “0.” It has 31 sacks through 13 games. Flacco was sacked three times in the teams’ first meeting, and he endured eight hits   

“Zach is the future of this organization,” Saleh said. “He’s the No. 2 pick. He’s extremely talented. He’s got a great head on his shoulders. He’s a phenomenal young man, and these are the types of games he has to go through. He has to learn how to play football in the NFL. He has to get these reps.”

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The Rest Of The Jets’ Offense

The Jets will return leading rusher rookie Michael Carter to the backfield along with Tevin Coleman. Carter missed the past three weeks with an ankle injury, while Coleman has been in concussion protocol the previous two weeks.

Carter has been an effective weapon, as he has rushed for 430 yards on 111 carries and also caught 32 passes for 308 yards. Coleman has rushed for 243 yards on 57 carries.

The Jets again will be without rookie playmaker wide receiver Elijah Moore, who has blossomed with 43 catches for 538 yards and five touchdowns. Moore had eight receptions for 141 yards with a touchdown in the previous meeting.

Wilson does have tight ends Tyler Kroft and Trevon Wescoe returning from injuries, and fellow tight end Ryan Griffin has been a regular contributor. 

Jamison Crowder leads the Jets with 45 receptions for 391 yards with a score, and return specialist Braxton Berrios (32-303) has been developing into a consistent target. The Jets are still optimistic 2020 second-round pick WR Denzel Mims can emerge as an effective option despite his recent issues with penalties and drops.

In their first meeting, the Jets were 1-for-4 in the red zone with two missed two field goals.

Also in the first meeting, the defense was burned on a 65-yard touchdown pass from Tagovailoa and hurt itself with two critical penalties.

The Jets’ defense continues to struggle as a league bottom feeder in several categories. They have allowed an average of 4.5 yards per carry, but they have been tighter against the pass with an average of 254 yards allowed per contest.

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Key Injuries For The Jets

The Jets could have some issues on the offensive line as tackle George Fant (knee) didn’t practice all week and is listed as doubtful. Guards Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (ankle) and Dan Feeney (back) will be game-time decisions. Defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins, who has been battling knee issues all season, had a full practice Friday after limited practices the previous days.

Defensive back Michael Carter II and edge rusher Bryce Huff will both be back in the lineup. Defensive tackle Quinnen Williams also should play despite a nagging shoulder.  

Dolphins’ Offense/ Injuries

Tagovailoa has recorded a passer rating north of 100 in each of his last four starts and has thrown five touchdowns against just one interception in the process. The Dolphins’ offensive line had given up 31 sacks, and the Jets have recorded 30.

Tagovailoa has thrown for 1,975 yards, 12 touchdowns, and six interceptions. Tagovailoa had a strong day against the Giants two weeks ago, going 30-for-41 for 244 yards and two touchdowns in a 20-9 victory. He really has found his stride during the team’s five-game winning streak.

No.6 overall pick WR Jaylen Waddle, who is seventh in the league with 86 catches, won’t play because he is in the COVID-19 protocol, but tight end and New Jersey native TE Mike Gesicki (59-642, 2 TDs) and WR DeVante Parker (30-389, 1 TD) are viable threats.

Miami, which is in the bottom half of the league with an average of 3.3 yards per carry, has gotten RBs Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed back from protocols, They are still thin at the position. 

Gaskin has a team-high 526 rushing yards with three touchdowns, and he had his season-best game in their previous meeting against the Jets with 89 yards on 23 carries. He also is a major receiving threat out of the backfield with 45 catches for 214 yards and four touchdowns.

Miami is relatively healthy. Safety Clayton Fejedelem (ankle), guard/tackle Austin Jackson (illness), and tight end Adam Shaheen (knee) were all listed as questionable Friday.

Dolphins Defense

The unit has been on the rise, and its blitzing schemes have raised their bar. Their linebacker play has been a recent positive.

The Dolphins have been more stingy over the past month, dropping their overall statistics per game to 245.7 passing yards allowed and 103.8 rushing yards allowed. They allow 22 points per contest.

LB Jaelan Phillips had a team-high 8.5 sacks, including two in the victory over the Giants. DE Emmanuel Ogbah has six sacks. LB Jerome Baker leads the team with 66 tackles, and fellow LB Elandon Roberts has 58 stops. DB Xavien Howard has four of the team’s 11 interceptions. 

Their 17 points allowed against the Jets in their previous meeting is the most they have given up during their five-game winning streak. During the run, they have allowed an average of 10.5 points per game.

Factoring In The Kickers

A key factor for the Jets will be new kicker Eddy Pineiro, who was a boost to the team’s kicking woes last week when he accounted for all the team’s points with three field goals last week. He booted 36-, 46-, and 36-yard field goals.

Miami kicker Jason Sanders has converted 17 of 23 field goals, and 25 of 26 extra points for 76 points. He has made 9 of 11 field-goal attempts at home.

Betting Recommendations

Records Against The Spread: Jets 3-9 overall, 1-4 on the road; Dolphins 7-6 overall, 4-3 at home.

Point spread pick: Take the Dolphins -9.5

Total pick: Both teams don’t light up the scoreboard so take under 41.

Score prediction: Miami 24, Jets 13

About the Author Jeff Moeller

Jeff has covered countless sports events on the high school, collegiate and professional levels in Pennsylvania, New York, and New Jersey for 37 years. He has worked for The Associated Press, Gannett, and numerous weeklies, dailies, wire services, and websites.

About the Author

Jeff Moeller

Jeff Moeller has been covering the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL and college football and basketball as well as high school sports on a national and local scene for the past 39 years. He has been a Jets and Giants beat reporter for the past 13 years.

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