Shohei Otani Deciding Between Japan or MLB

Hilton · 10-19-2012, 05:19 PM

Shohei Otani Deciding Between Japan, MLB

By Mark Polishuk [October 19 at 4:12pm CST]
OCTOBER 19TH: Otani is set to decide between playing in MLB and staying in Japan on Monday, according to a report from Sanspo (Japanese link) passed along by Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker (via Twitter).

OCTOBER 11TH: High school pitcher Shohei Otani, 18, is being courted by every NPB team and at least three Major League teams, reports WEEI.com's Alex Speier. The Red Sox, Dodgers and Rangers have all sent representatives to Japan to meet with Otani, and Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News notes that the Orioles also have interest in the right-hander.

Despite his young age, Otani is already 6'4" and 190 pounds and owns a fastball that has been clocked in the 99-100 mph range. MLB teams wouldn't have to pay a posting fee to sign Otani as he isn't contracted to any Japanese pro team

Hilton · 10-19-2012, 05:24 PM

How many more of these guys will the Mets pass on? Aroldis Chapman, Yoenis Cespedes, Yu Darvish and Yasiel Puig. Any coincidence the Reds, Athletics and Rangers made the playoffs?

Remember the days when the Mets used to operate like a large market team?

MetfanBren · 10-19-2012, 11:37 PM

Has nothing to do with large market since teams can only spend $2.9 million on international free agents. The question is how much of your pool money are you willing to give him, because I'm sure he's going to want most all of it to come over here. He could probably make more in Japan...

Keep in mind that huge international bonuses don't often work out, and every legit prospect the Mets have signed has been for six figures or even less. Going all in on a kid isn't the wisest strategy...

Hilton · 10-19-2012, 11:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MetfanBren

Has nothing to do with large market since teams can only spend $2.9 million on international free agents. The question is how much of your pool money are you willing to give him, because I'm sure he's going to want most all of it to come over here. He could probably make more in Japan...

Keep in mind that huge international bonuses don't often work out, and every legit prospect the Mets have signed has been for six figures or even less. Going all in on a kid isn't the wisest strategy...

I am under the impression that doesn't apply to Japanese players, perhaps I am wrong.

Hilton · 10-19-2012, 11:42 PM

International Free Agent Profile: Kyuji Fujikawa, Relief Pitcher - Amazin' Avenue

The International Free Agent Market - Amazin' Avenue

The 32-year-old right-handed pitcher, who will turn 33 in July, was very good during this year. And last year. And the year before that. Well, suffice to say, Fujikawa has been an elite pitcher for a while now. During that eight-year timeframe, his 2.01 ERA in 2010 was his highest. He also posted his worst BB/9 rate at 2.87 and K/9 rate at 11.6.

MetfanBren · 10-19-2012, 11:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hilton

I am under the impression that doesn't apply to Japanese players, perhaps I am wrong.

Report: Multiple teams meet with Japanese prodigy Shohei Otani - CBSSports.com

Quote:

So the question then becomes whether or not Otani chooses MLB or NPB to begin his career. The new rules limiting teams to $2.9 million annually for international free agents will likely come into play. Although players who have already played five years in NPB (or other recognized professional leagues, according to Baseball America) will be exempt from the pool, amateurs like Otani will still apply.

Keep in mind that MLB and NPB have a great relationship and they were really pissed the last time that the Red Sox did this. MLB would stop it if they could, but there's no way they let him sign for more than $2.9 million....

Hilton · 10-19-2012, 11:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MetfanBren

Report: Multiple teams meet with Japanese prodigy Shohei Otani - CBSSports.com

Keep in mind that MLB and NPB have a great relationship and they were really pissed the last time that the Red Sox did this. MLB would stop it if they could, but there's no way they let him sign for more than $2.9 million....

Didn't Puig sign with the Dodgers for significantly more?

MetfanBren · 10-19-2012, 11:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hilton

Didn't Puig sign with the Dodgers for significantly more?

Before the new rules went into effect in June...

Hilton · 10-19-2012, 11:55 PM

Latest On Shohei Otani
By Ben Nicholson-Smith [October 23 at 4:02pm CST]
Shohei Otani, the Japanese pitching prospect who intends to pursue a career in MLB, appears to be an elite talent comparable to those selected in the top half of the first round of baseball’s amateur draft. The right-hander had been a potential first overall pick in Japan before he announced his intention to play for an MLB organization. And, according to Jim Callis of Baseball America, Dodgers assistant GM Logan White told Japanese reporters that Otani could go first overall if he were eligible for the MLB draft.

However, the 18-year-old free agent won’t be draft eligible. Otani will be subject to spending restrictions as an international amateur, which means teams will face consequences if they exceed the $2.9MM international bonus threshold to sign him. Teams will be taxed at a rate of 100% for exceeding the 2.9MM threshold by more than 15%. These clubs would also forfeit the right to spend more than $250K on an international player during the following year’s signing period.

Callis suggests these restrictions won’t be too much of a deterrent for interested MLB teams. Boston GM Ben Cherington confirmed today that the Red Sox met with Otani, Alex Speier of WEEI.com reports (on Twitter). The Red Sox and Rangers “have done the most work in this arena,” ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reported today. Meanwhile, the Angels aren’t expected to be heavily involved, Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com reports (on Twitter).

Hilton · 10-24-2012, 07:21 AM

Once again the Mets will fail to land the best International player available. Scouts are referring to Otani as the kind of talent who would be selected first overall. The Mets already missed out on other International talent (Aroldis Chapman, Yoenis Cespedes, Yu Darvish and Yasiel Puig). I don't care if the Mets exceed the spending limit of 2.9 mm or if they're taxed a higher rate as a result. THESE ARE THE KIND OF THINGS YOU DO TO WIN MR.WILPON-

Shastada · 10-24-2012, 07:47 AM

Would be nice, but if everyone is limited to the same 2.9 mil cap, why would he choose us if we offered the same as others? The organization is a joke, we actually have a pretty large amount of young pitching so its not like there is a easy direct path to the majors...

Kid would probably laugh at the mets if we called him.

Hilton · 10-24-2012, 07:59 AM

Shohei Otani And The Mets | Mets Merized Online

Shohei Otani And The Mets

"The cap resets on July 2nd of next year (2013) so if the Mets want to sign him, they have to use the money allotted for 2012. Becuse Otani is an IFA, he is limited to the IFA signing bonus cap, which I believe is around $2.9 MM. The Mets have already spent $1.75 MM on Amed Rosario (using the spelling BA released) – a 16-year old shortstop. I do not know much about the Mets IFA pool, but on average, we can guess they have about $1 MM to throw as a bonus to Otani. From there, he would enter the system as any other IFA would at the discretion of the team.

A team can go over the cap by up to 5% by paying a tax while going over any further limits the amount of money you can shell out to IFAs in the following years. Of course, this is the Mets, so you should not expect any overages…especially for minor league players, how crazy would that be? Investing over-slot type money for a prospect… The 5% would amount to about 3.075 MM, without including the 75% tax on the overage.

I expect Otani to sign before July of next year, but I am disappointed because I have heard basically nothing about the Mets trying to court this guy. I would honestly offer whatever money we have left in our IFA budget until next July to the guy. The reason I find myself so enamored with Otani is the fact that he would have the time to go through an MLB minor league system and develop as any other raw prospect would. If you all remember, just a little while back in 2009, the Mets had reps looking at Yusei Kikuchi, who decided to stay in Japan after much deliberation"

MetfanBren · 10-24-2012, 08:56 AM

Otani is a great prospect, but beware the hype machine...

Japanese RHP Shohei Otani Coming to MLB | FanGraphs Baseball

Quote:

Sort of. The gun was hot that day, for one. Patrick Newman from the site NPB Tracker said that scouts had him at 150 to 155 kmh (93.2 to 96.3 mph) at that game — still great velocity but not quite triple digits. And though we don’t have readily available statistics for Japanese high school, news of his bad control has followed excitement about his velocity and stuff. Newman excellently wrote up an Otani start in one of their legendary tournaments, and he points out that a) Otani’s fastball, slider and curve all showed excellent raw stuff and the young man struck out 11 in eight-plus innings and b) his control was unrefined, he walked 11, and looked terrible by the end of the game. Oh and Newman also had less flattering video, this time of the pitcher falling apart in the seventh inning.

No arm, no matter how elite, that walks 11 is going #1 overall or be talked of like a Bundy...

There's also the matter of how Japanese teams abuse pitchers...

Quote:

For one last asterisk, Otani threw 173 pitches in that game, which happens often in Japanese high school, but could make an American team balk if the asking price rises too high.

Just your average high-risk, high-reward international signing.

Hilton · 10-24-2012, 09:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MetfanBren

Otani is a great prospect, but beware the hype machine...

Japanese RHP Shohei Otani Coming to MLB | FanGraphs Baseball

No arm, no matter how elite, that walks 11 is going #1 overall or be talked of like a Bundy...

There's also the matter of how Japanese teams abuse pitchers...

I'm not surprised Otani walked 11 batters, especially when you consider the number of pitches (173)- which is over use for a pitcher at any level. He still has an electric arm and would easily be considered one of the elite pitchers available in the upcoming draft. An investment of $3-5 million is a low risk- high reward for a young pitcher with an amazing arm. Consider how much the Dodgers paid for Puig last year.

I for one would like the Mets to invest in a potential phenom, considering that we haven't had one since Gooden.

MetfanBren · 10-24-2012, 09:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hilton

I'm not surprised Otani walked 11 batters, especially when you consider the number of pitches (173)- which is over use for a pitcher at any level. He still has an electric arm and would easily be considered one of the elite pitchers available in the upcoming draft. An investment of $3-5 million is a low risk- high reward for a young pitcher with an amazing arm. Consider how much the Dodgers paid for Puig last year.

I for one would like the Mets to invest in a potential phenom, considering that we haven't had one since Gooden.

Circular reasoning. He threw 173 pitches because he walked 11. He didn't walk 11 because he threw 173 pitches...

And nobody can invest $3-$5 million in him. Please try and keep up...

10-19-2012, 05:19 PM	#1 (permalink)
Hilton Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Windermere, Florida Posts: 1,869	Shohei Otani Deciding Between Japan or MLB Shohei Otani Deciding Between Japan, MLB By Mark Polishuk [October 19 at 4:12pm CST] OCTOBER 19TH: Otani is set to decide between playing in MLB and staying in Japan on Monday, according to a report from Sanspo (Japanese link) passed along by Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker (via Twitter). OCTOBER 11TH: High school pitcher Shohei Otani, 18, is being courted by every NPB team and at least three Major League teams, reports WEEI.com's Alex Speier. The Red Sox, Dodgers and Rangers have all sent representatives to Japan to meet with Otani, and Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News notes that the Orioles also have interest in the right-hander. Despite his young age, Otani is already 6'4" and 190 pounds and owns a fastball that has been clocked in the 99-100 mph range. MLB teams wouldn't have to pay a posting fee to sign Otani as he isn't contracted to any Japanese pro team

10-19-2012, 11:37 PM	#3 (permalink)
MetfanBren Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Pearl River, NY Posts: 10,212	Has nothing to do with large market since teams can only spend $2.9 million on international free agents. The question is how much of your pool money are you willing to give him, because I'm sure he's going to want most all of it to come over here. He could probably make more in Japan... Keep in mind that huge international bonuses don't often work out, and every legit prospect the Mets have signed has been for six figures or even less. Going all in on a kid isn't the wisest strategy... __________________ "I never argue with people who say that baseball is boring, because baseball is boring. And then, suddenly, it isn’t. And that’s what makes it great." ~ Joe Posnanski

10-19-2012, 11:42 PM	#5 (permalink)
Hilton Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Windermere, Florida Posts: 1,869	International Free Agent Profile: Kyuji Fujikawa, Relief Pitcher - Amazin' Avenue The International Free Agent Market - Amazin' Avenue The 32-year-old right-handed pitcher, who will turn 33 in July, was very good during this year. And last year. And the year before that. Well, suffice to say, Fujikawa has been an elite pitcher for a while now. During that eight-year timeframe, his 2.01 ERA in 2010 was his highest. He also posted his worst BB/9 rate at 2.87 and K/9 rate at 11.6. Last edited by Hilton : 10-19-2012 at 11:51 PM.

10-19-2012, 11:55 PM	#9 (permalink)
Hilton Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Windermere, Florida Posts: 1,869	Latest On Shohei Otani By Ben Nicholson-Smith [October 23 at 4:02pm CST] Shohei Otani, the Japanese pitching prospect who intends to pursue a career in MLB, appears to be an elite talent comparable to those selected in the top half of the first round of baseball’s amateur draft. The right-hander had been a potential first overall pick in Japan before he announced his intention to play for an MLB organization. And, according to Jim Callis of Baseball America, Dodgers assistant GM Logan White told Japanese reporters that Otani could go first overall if he were eligible for the MLB draft. However, the 18-year-old free agent won’t be draft eligible. Otani will be subject to spending restrictions as an international amateur, which means teams will face consequences if they exceed the $2.9MM international bonus threshold to sign him. Teams will be taxed at a rate of 100% for exceeding the 2.9MM threshold by more than 15%. These clubs would also forfeit the right to spend more than $250K on an international player during the following year’s signing period. Callis suggests these restrictions won’t be too much of a deterrent for interested MLB teams. Boston GM Ben Cherington confirmed today that the Red Sox met with Otani, Alex Speier of WEEI.com reports (on Twitter). The Red Sox and Rangers “have done the most work in this arena,” ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reported today. Meanwhile, the Angels aren’t expected to be heavily involved, Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com reports (on Twitter). Last edited by Hilton : 10-24-2012 at 07:15 AM.

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10-19-2012, 05:24 PM	#2 (permalink)
Hilton Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Windermere, Florida Posts: 1,869	How many more of these guys will the Mets pass on? Aroldis Chapman, Yoenis Cespedes, Yu Darvish and Yasiel Puig. Any coincidence the Reds, Athletics and Rangers made the playoffs? Remember the days when the Mets used to operate like a large market team?

10-24-2012, 07:21 AM	#10 (permalink)
Hilton Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Windermere, Florida Posts: 1,869	Once again the Mets will fail to land the best International player available. Scouts are referring to Otani as the kind of talent who would be selected first overall. The Mets already missed out on other International talent (Aroldis Chapman, Yoenis Cespedes, Yu Darvish and Yasiel Puig). I don't care if the Mets exceed the spending limit of 2.9 mm or if they're taxed a higher rate as a result. THESE ARE THE KIND OF THINGS YOU DO TO WIN MR.WILPON-

10-24-2012, 07:47 AM	#11 (permalink)
Shastada Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 3,572	Would be nice, but if everyone is limited to the same 2.9 mil cap, why would he choose us if we offered the same as others? The organization is a joke, we actually have a pretty large amount of young pitching so its not like there is a easy direct path to the majors... Kid would probably laugh at the mets if we called him.

10-24-2012, 07:59 AM	#12 (permalink)
Hilton Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Windermere, Florida Posts: 1,869	Shohei Otani And The Mets \| Mets Merized Online Shohei Otani And The Mets "The cap resets on July 2nd of next year (2013) so if the Mets want to sign him, they have to use the money allotted for 2012. Becuse Otani is an IFA, he is limited to the IFA signing bonus cap, which I believe is around $2.9 MM. The Mets have already spent $1.75 MM on Amed Rosario (using the spelling BA released) – a 16-year old shortstop. I do not know much about the Mets IFA pool, but on average, we can guess they have about $1 MM to throw as a bonus to Otani. From there, he would enter the system as any other IFA would at the discretion of the team. A team can go over the cap by up to 5% by paying a tax while going over any further limits the amount of money you can shell out to IFAs in the following years. Of course, this is the Mets, so you should not expect any overages…especially for minor league players, how crazy would that be? Investing over-slot type money for a prospect… The 5% would amount to about 3.075 MM, without including the 75% tax on the overage. I expect Otani to sign before July of next year, but I am disappointed because I have heard basically nothing about the Mets trying to court this guy. I would honestly offer whatever money we have left in our IFA budget until next July to the guy. The reason I find myself so enamored with Otani is the fact that he would have the time to go through an MLB minor league system and develop as any other raw prospect would. If you all remember, just a little while back in 2009, the Mets had reps looking at Yusei Kikuchi, who decided to stay in Japan after much deliberation"

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