Keith Law Rankings

[MetfanBren]

Organizational Rankings:

15. New York Mets - It's fashionable in New York to bash their system, but productive international scouting continues to bail out their draft efforts, which are repeatedly hamstrung by ownership's refusal to exceed slot in the first few rounds.

NL East:


5. Braves
12. Marlins
23. Nationals
24. Phillies


Mets Top 10


1. Jenrry Mejia, RHP
2. Wilmer Flores, 3B
3. Ike Davis, 1B
4. Fernando Martinez, RF
5. Brad Holt, RHP
6. Jon Niese, LHP
7. Josh Thole, C
8. Reese Havens, 2B
9. Jefry Marte, 3B
10. Juan Urbina, LHP



Top 100 Mets:



23. Jenrry Mejia

Mejia entered 2009 with no experience above short-season leagues, but finished it in Double-A despite missing time in the middle of the year with a strained finger on his pitching hand. He has top-of-the-rotation stuff, but is just 20 with the command you'd expect to see in a live-armed teenager with barely 200 innings in pro ball. His fastball sits at 93-96 and will tick higher, and the ball sometimes shows natural cutting action toward left-handed hitters. His changeup is his best off-speed pitch and, at 85-87 mph with good tail, looks like a soft two-seamer. His curveball is very inconsistent, but at its best, it's plus with good two-plane break and depth in the upper 70s. He's thick but not tall, and his slot is just below 3/4 -- so he has to work on staying on top of the ball, and the finger injury reduced his already below-average command. That said, he's 20 and has shown he can get advanced hitters in Double-A out. If the Mets slow him down a little and let him spend all of 2010 (and maybe some of 2011) in the minors to improve his command and the consistency of his changeup and curve, they have a chance for a No. 1 or No. 2 starter.

41. Wilmer Flores

Flores, as predicted, broke with a full-season club in 2009 and held his own despite playing most of the year at 17. He has very quick wrists and is short to the ball with good finish. The ball flies off his bat, especially in BP, in which he shows the promise of future plus power, and in games he has already shown that he can square balls up against pitchers two or three years his senior. In fact, of players with at least 400 at-bats in the Sally League in 2009, only one hitter had fewer strikeouts than Flores did. His main deficiency as a player is very slow feet, even though he's not thickly built, and he has no shot to stay at shortstop and little shot of handling third base, which means he'll end up at first base or in an outfield corner, although there's an excellent chance his bat plays in any of those positions.

64. Ike Davis

Davis' mediocre debut in 2008 turned out to be a red herring, as he finished his first full season in 2009 in Double-A and isn't far from reaching the majors. He has raw power, especially dead pull power, and showed that he can murder a fastball and lay off a lot of pitches out of the zone against right-handed pitchers. On the downside, Davis doesn't hit left-handed pitching at all, and even against right-handers struggles to recognize off-speed stuff. He's a reasonably good athlete who can handle first base and actually has a plus arm -- he was 92-94 mph as a reliever in college -- although that's less relevant at the position. A full year in Double-A/Triple-A to work on pitch recognition and on improving his approach against left-handers is probably critical for his future as an everyday player, but he has a chance to be an above-average one if he can shed the "platoon player" tag with more reps

.


73. Fernando Martinez

Martinez has one of the biggest drops of anyone on this list (from last year's list), but I'm not down on Martinez's offensive potential -- the ball still comes off his bat incredibly well, comparable to Starlin Castro, who sits in the Top 25 of this list because of that skill -- and I could have left Martinez in the Top 25 and justified it. The problems with "F-Mart," aside from the fact that Mets fans decided to give him a nickname more appropriate for a farm-equipment discount store, aren't about baseball skills. He continues to have trouble staying healthy, and there's a real risk of Chris Snelling disease here, with lack of playing time limiting his development; he's never had more than 400 plate appearances in any season, and even including winter ball this offseason, when he was just back from knee surgery, he had fewer than 300 PAs in '09. Martinez has also had his work ethic and conditioning called into question, including a visible lack of effort more than once at the big league level last year. Very few players can coast to major league stardom on talent alone, and Martinez needs to grow up -- he's still just 21 years old -- to turn himself into an elite corner-outfield bat. (It looks like Martinez has exactly 45 days on the Mets' active roster, which would make him eligible for the Rookie of the Year award in 2010, as well as for this list. If he had just one more day on the active roster, he'd no longer be eligible.)

Chat:

Nick (Long Island, NY): You have been one of F-Mart's biggest fans over the years, even after others have soured on him. That's why I was surprised when I saw you have him at #73. If he can somehow stay healthy this season, do you see him returning to elite prospect status?

Klaw: He has to stay healthy, show that the lost development time hasn't hurt him, and show a better work ethic. Everything came too fast for him, I think.


Mr. Must See TV (Writing From Wilpon's Office):I know that Wilmer's footwork and lack of speed will prevent him from staying at short or third, but don't you think his strong arm can play in right field. Also, I think Kirk Nieuwenhuis can make a very good #4 outfielder. Thoughts?

Klaw:Yes, I think Flores can play LF/RF. And that's what I think Nieuwenhuis is, which is why he wasn't on my Mets top 10.


Mike (Long Island): Should Fernando Martinez really be on this list? I mean, he can't stay healthy and his stint in the majors didn't prove much.

Klaw:He was way too young for the big leagues, and he has top-25 ability. But intangibles, including his inability to stay healthy, count too.


Matt (DC): Keith, I know you're high on Jennry Mejia, but I've heard concerns that he may end up in the bullpen if his secondary pitches don't develop. Thoughts?

Klaw: I don't see that as the issue. Command and control are his issues.


Mike (MO): Does Reese Havens have the potential to be a top 50 guy? Above avg regular or just another guy?

Klaw: Just a guy, not a star for me.

[Led, the Revenge]

Seems we're not the only ones who think the Mets tend to rush prospects far too fast. That, IMO, is why they always have a rep for a bad farm - they accelerate the development too much for the player to adjust and they look like flops.

[MetfanBren]

Law also likes Niese as one of 2010's top rookie prospects:

Jonathon Niese, LHP: Niese is a potential four-pitch starter and might be their No. 2 starter at the rate their offseason is going, but his upside is capped by lack of velocity and questions about command. His fastball is fringe-average, but he offsets it with a cutter he threw a lot more in 2009, and also has a standard curveball (with fair depth) and changeup that gets right-handers out reasonably well. His career ground-ball rate is over 50 percent as well, with a strong showing in 2009 after he added the cut fastball. I could see him pitching like a good fifth starter this year, assuming he faces no ill effects from the hamstring tear that ended his 2009 season prematurely.

[MrHat]

Thats the first time I've ever heard anyone say's Niese's curverball is standard....

He's way too high on Flores IMO....thats a pure reach and projection pick especially for a guy who's probably best off at 1B or DH

[MetfanBren]

We'll have to see with Flores. Will they ask him to develop his talent in a league where he's four or five years younger than everyone else, or will they do the right thing and have him repeat one where he's only three years a junior?

They're both pitchers leagues to begin with, so for a kid like this you really only have tools and contact rate to go by. Same with Tejada, but with less upside. My biggest hope is that Krivsky was brought in to help bring along the prospects, and the Bernazard three year plan is done away with...

[MrHat]

No doubt, but I just dont see the point of putting any 17 year old in the #2 spot when all the kid has proven so far is that he can't play SS every day and that they Mets were absolute idiots in thinking a 17 year old should be in that league to begin with.

I don't mind reaches when it comes to young players with obvious talent like Flores does have, but regardless of level or age they need to show *something* on the stat line to be called the #2 IMO. Mejia being a perfect example. His stats arent overwhelming in AA, but considering his age and the stuff he showed, I can more than understand him being in the top spot on any list.

I know a lot of people just do the rankings purely on projections...basically saying I don't like it

Tejada rarely gets love from anyone for a 19 year old playing well in AA.

[DDPv6.0]

Kyle Allen question for Jim Callis:

Q: After watching video of Mets righthander Kyle Allen, I've been impressed. What's his ceiling?

A: He's one of my favorite sleepers. I think his ceiling is No. 3 starter, but maybe he'll surprise us.

[FrankStylV7]

they all suck ****.

[MetfanBren]

The Hardball Times claims to have the consensus ranking for every system, a whole bunch of lists jammed into one. Must be a few I missed because Havens seems rather high. Next year maybe we can get this all into one thread, but good luck with that...


The compilation: MLB team-by-team top-10 prospects

Mets

The Mets' ability to scout international talent has saved their farm system. They have a nice mix of talent from different places on the diamond, but very little depth beyond the top 10.


1. Jenrry Mejia
2. Fernando Martinez
3. Wilmer Flores
4. Ike Davis
5. Reese Havens
6. Jonathon Niese
7. Jeurys Familia
8. Ruben Tejada
9. Brad Holt
10. Josh Thole