It's statistical analysis like this

15 Day DL Alou · 10-27-2007, 08:20 AM

that make me want to walk away from the game and the idiots watching it....

"From the what might've been department: Red Sox owner John Henry was in favor of signing A.J. Burnett instead of trading for Josh Beckett. One could make a solid argument that the Red Sox would be better off if Henry had gotten his wish. Beckett and Julio Lugo combined for 8.6 wins at $14MM this year while Burnett and Hanley Ramirez combined for 14.8 wins at $12.4MM (according to WARP). "

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

Piney Woods · 10-27-2007, 08:36 AM

What don't you like ...
- speculation about what would have happened if Boston took path B instead of path A?
- the answer they came up with?
- or the method they used to come up with it?

Hojo of 1991 · 10-27-2007, 10:35 AM

i understand that they are doing it by position, but its idiotic to do analysis like that and not include the other pieces in the trade. mike lowell would make the win share jump dramatically, I imagine.

Kid A · 10-27-2007, 10:44 AM

Burnett and Ramierez were on two different teams. How can you even begin to quantify what they might have done together on Boston?

I agree. Just watch the game.

Bay Ridge Dave · 10-27-2007, 11:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kid A

Burnett and Ramierez were on two different teams. How can you even begin to quantify what they might have done together on Boston?

I agree. Just watch the game.

Totally agree.

If you watch...

Beckett is now a sure-thing, lock-down ace starting pitcher.
Burnett is a good starting pitcher not worth the money he's getting.
Ramirez is one of the top NL shortstops.
Lugo is crap. Imagine how much grief we'd be giving him here if he had signed with the Mets (which IIRC was a big rumor last winter)...

Dewitt Clinton · 10-27-2007, 11:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 15 Day DL Alou

that make me want to walk away from the game and the idiots watching it....

"From the what might've been department: Red Sox owner John Henry was in favor of signing A.J. Burnett instead of trading for Josh Beckett. One could make a solid argument that the Red Sox would be better off if Henry had gotten his wish. Beckett and Julio Lugo combined for 8.6 wins at $14MM this year while Burnett and Hanley Ramirez combined for 14.8 wins at $12.4MM (according to WARP). "

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

It's a-holes like this that give academics a bad name. I'll never forget the moron I saw asking Roger Kahn questions at one of his public appearances. This schmuck, wearing a tweed jacket with elbow patches, was expanding and expounding on "do we really have a need for a Baseball Hall of Fame?" Moron.

Gregory Gewirtz · 10-27-2007, 11:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hojo of 1991

i understand that they are doing it by position, but its idiotic to do analysis like that and not include the other pieces in the trade. mike lowell would make the win share jump dramatically, I imagine.

Agreed, and in addition, it's not fair to "diss" the Beckett trade on the basis of Lugo being awful since Lugo wasn't the only shortstop option around.

Still it's a fair point that for as good as Beckett has been, it should be remembered that the Red Sox parted with one of the game's best young shortstops to get him.

SteveJRogers · 10-27-2007, 12:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dewitt Clinton

It's a-holes like this that give academics a bad name. I'll never forget the moron I saw asking Roger Kahn questions at one of his public appearances. This schmuck, wearing a tweed jacket with elbow patches, was expanding and expounding on "do we really have a need for a Baseball Hall of Fame?" Moron.

Wow! On what basis? That Hodges still wasn't in so lets do away with the notion?

Led, the Revenge · 10-27-2007, 01:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dewitt Clinton

It's a-holes like this that give academics a bad name. I'll never forget the moron I saw asking Roger Kahn questions at one of his public appearances. This schmuck, wearing a tweed jacket with elbow patches, was expanding and expounding on "do we really have a need for a Baseball Hall of Fame?" Moron.

****, let's just do away with the game and every October run a seasons worth of Out of the Park Baseball and publish the results on the internet, with a breakdown of algorithims for the "real fans".

mets84 · 10-27-2007, 01:18 PM

I imagine that in the unlikely event the Mets ever win the World Series, that's the type of criticism people will come up with... only it will be "serious" conventional wisdom.

"Sure they won... but imagine how much more dominant they could have been if they did this and this and this and this..."

15 Day DL Alou · 10-27-2007, 02:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Piney Woods

What don't you like ...
- speculation about what would have happened if Boston took path B instead of path A?
- the answer they came up with?
- or the method they used to come up with it?

a. speculation is impossible to prove so it is largely a game for idiots

b. the answer is completely based on false hoods as Beckett and Lugo were not traded for Burnett and Ramirez.

c. ibid

d. Probably in 2, maybe 4 days everyone in boston could care less if Ramirez rips off ten consecutive 2007 campaigns.

The Red Sox probably beat the Angels, but do not beat the Indians sans Beckett.

Piney Woods · 10-27-2007, 02:49 PM

a. speculation is impossible to prove so it is largely a game for idiots

Speculation is much of what fans do.
Without it you can kill about 90% of what goes on here and on bar stools everywhere.

b. the answer is completely based on false hoods as Beckett and Lugo were not traded for Burnett and Ramirez.

No they weren't, but the clear implication is that if the FA signing had been made then the trade would not have either, a situation which would have left the Sox with a different pitcher and a different SS.

c. ibid

Well, for those who don't like the question I suppose that no method used to answer it is legit.

d. Probably in 2, maybe 4 days everyone in boston could care less if Ramirez rips off ten consecutive 2007 campaigns.

Probably correct.

The Red Sox probably beat the Angels, but do not beat the Indians sans Beckett.

Hmmm, sounds like speculation.

Bay Ridge Dave · 10-27-2007, 04:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gregory Gewirtz

Agreed, and in addition, it's not fair to "diss" the Beckett trade on the basis of Lugo being awful since Lugo wasn't the only shortstop option around.

Still it's a fair point that for as good as Beckett has been, it should be remembered that the Red Sox parted with one of the game's best young shortstops to get him.

The Sox's mistake was letting Alex Gonzalez go, and getting Lugo.

Bay Ridge Dave · 10-27-2007, 04:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Led, the Revenge

****, let's just do away with the game and every October run a seasons worth of Out of the Park Baseball and publish the results on the internet, with a breakdown of algorithims for the "real fans".

Then, for the World Series, just go on Park Adjustments and Oops.. or whatever they call it these days...

Oh, the joy...

Rey-YES · 10-27-2007, 04:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bay Ridge Dave

The Sox's mistake was letting Alex Gonzalez go, and getting Lugo.

Their mistake was the Mets' blessing. Suppose Lugo signed here to be our 2Bman for 3 years, as was speculated when he was a FA.

10-27-2007, 08:20 AM	#1 (permalink)
15 Day DL Alou Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: 2016 Posts: 6,026	It's statistical analysis like this that make me want to walk away from the game and the idiots watching it.... "From the what might've been department: Red Sox owner John Henry was in favor of signing A.J. Burnett instead of trading for Josh Beckett. One could make a solid argument that the Red Sox would be better off if Henry had gotten his wish. Beckett and Julio Lugo combined for 8.6 wins at $14MM this year while Burnett and Hanley Ramirez combined for 14.8 wins at $12.4MM (according to WARP). " http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

10-27-2007, 02:49 PM	#12 (permalink)
Piney Woods Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 364	a. speculation is impossible to prove so it is largely a game for idiots Speculation is much of what fans do. Without it you can kill about 90% of what goes on here and on bar stools everywhere. b. the answer is completely based on false hoods as Beckett and Lugo were not traded for Burnett and Ramirez. No they weren't, but the clear implication is that if the FA signing had been made then the trade would not have either, a situation which would have left the Sox with a different pitcher and a different SS. c. ibid Well, for those who don't like the question I suppose that no method used to answer it is legit. d. Probably in 2, maybe 4 days everyone in boston could care less if Ramirez rips off ten consecutive 2007 campaigns. Probably correct. The Red Sox probably beat the Angels, but do not beat the Indians sans Beckett. Hmmm, sounds like speculation. Last edited by Piney Woods : 10-27-2007 at 03:18 PM.

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10-27-2007, 08:36 AM	#2 (permalink)
Piney Woods Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 364	What don't you like ... - speculation about what would have happened if Boston took path B instead of path A? - the answer they came up with? - or the method they used to come up with it?

10-27-2007, 10:35 AM	#3 (permalink)
Hojo of 1991 Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Orlando, FL Posts: 3,358	i understand that they are doing it by position, but its idiotic to do analysis like that and not include the other pieces in the trade. mike lowell would make the win share jump dramatically, I imagine.

10-27-2007, 10:44 AM	#4 (permalink)
Kid A Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 2,335	Burnett and Ramierez were on two different teams. How can you even begin to quantify what they might have done together on Boston? I agree. Just watch the game.

10-27-2007, 01:18 PM	#10 (permalink)
mets84 Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Down by 11 in the 9th inning Posts: 9,859	I imagine that in the unlikely event the Mets ever win the World Series, that's the type of criticism people will come up with... only it will be "serious" conventional wisdom. "Sure they won... but imagine how much more dominant they could have been if they did this and this and this and this..."

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