Primary predictions

[NeilAllen]

Originally Posted by ambler

But c'mon, finishing behind Paul? The big winner tonight was Obama by far.

Eh it didn't shock me all that much. The bizarre Iowa Caucus process is more tailor made for the whole Ron Paul thing. Florida & Super Tuesday? Not so much.

[Green Must Go]

I'm really surprised McCain is doing this well. I had him written off a couple years ago, thinking he never again had any shot at the White House.

[RkFast]

All I know is, the CU-T lost. So its a happy day.

[KingOlerud]

Romney got hurt most by the large evangelical turnout, though I'm surprised that Thompson and McCain got as large a share as they did. Romney has been slow and steady the entire time. Exaggerations of his death are being greatly exaggerated.

[Mule]

Results:

Complete results from Iowa caucuses - State Results - MSNBC.com

Democrats:

Barack Obama 940 38%
John Edwards 744 30%
Hillary Clinton 737 29%
Bill Richardson 53 2%
Joe Biden 23 1%
Uncommitted 3 0%
Chris Dodd 1 0%
Mike Gravel 0 0%
Dennis Kucinich 0 0%

Republicans:

Mike Huckabee 39,814 34%
Mitt Romney 29,405 25%
Fred Thompson 15,521 13%
John McCain 15,248 13%
Ron Paul 11,598 10%
Rudy Giuliani 4,013 3%
Duncan Hunter 515 0%

Both Dodd and Biden have dropped out...good riddance to both.

[Green Must Go]

Wow. Billary came in 3rd place. This is good news.

[ambler]

The boig losers are ceetainly Hil and ROmney.

But the thing is, I think last nigth Obama showed that he may really be on to somehting. Now the media is going to be playing him a ton and that alone will garner him additional suport. I mean, he won a state that's 2% black and women voted for him more than for Hil. I think the Obama nay-sayers, and I admit to having beenone, have to re-examine this guy's odds. He is so likeable up there and he's just as smart as any of the others, and as good looking as Romney in his own way (yes looks do matter) that he could be a much more formidable candidate than people have given him credit for. Oh yeah, and did I mention that the media is going to be all into the Hill is dead and Barack is on fire mode? Why not? It's a great story on the dem side.

And be honest, forum Repubs: in a GE you have to be more worried about Obabma than Hil. Hil is a potnetial 48-50 state loser no matter who runs against her, with lifelong desm (like myself) voting GOP in droves for the first time. Obama at least makes it comepetitve against the very weak GOP field.

[FrankStylV7]

Originally Posted by ambler

The boig losers are ceetainly Hil and ROmney.

But the thing is, I think last nigth Obama showed that he may really be on to somehting. Now the media is going to be playing him a ton and that alone will garner him additional suport. I mean, he won a state that's 2% black and women voted for him more than for Hil. I think the Obama nay-sayers, and I admit to having beenone, have to re-examine this guy's odds. He is so likeable up there and he's just as smart as any of the others, and as good looking as Romney in his own way (yes looks do matter) that he could be a much more formidable candidate than people have given him credit for. Oh yeah, and did I mention that the media is going to be all into the Hill is dead and Barack is on fire mode? Why not? It's a great story on the dem side.

And be honest, forum Repubs: in a GE you have to be more worried about Obabma than Hil. Hil is a potnetial 48-50 state loser no matter who runs against her, with lifelong desm (like myself) voting GOP in droves for the first time. Obama at least makes it comepetitve against the very weak GOP field.

Which Repubs would you vote for if they were facing Clinton?

Does anyone think that term limits need to be abolished for the President? Hell, if Bill could come back I might vote for him over the current field. Coincidentally - a couple of years ago Bill voiced his desire for term limits to be tossed aside, most likely out of personal interest.

I

[Mule]

Originally Posted by ambler

I mean, he won a state that's 2% black and women voted for him more than for Hil.

I think that's a HUGE mistake by the Hillary campaign so far, taking the women's vote for granted. Obama is going to slap them silly on the women's vote if things continue at current pace.

And be honest, forum Repubs: in a GE you have to be more worried about Obabma than Hil. Hil is a potnetial 48-50 state loser no matter who runs against her, with lifelong desm (like myself) voting GOP in droves for the first time. Obama at least makes it comepetitve against the very weak GOP field.

I'd lobby for "forum conservative" vs. "forum Repub" as a label, but I agree on your point. At this point an Obama/Edwards ticket is the Dems' strongest bet.

Luckily there's a lot to be fleshed out yet. Bump this thread on Feb 9th.

(edited for spelling)

[Fonzy13]

Originally Posted by Mule

I think that's a HUGE mistake by the Hillary campaign so far, taking the women's vote for granted. Obama is going to slap them silly on the women's vote if things continue at current pace.



I'd lobby for "forum conservative" vs. "forum Repub" as a label, but I agree on your point. At this point an Obama/Edwards ticket is the Dems' strongest bet.

Luckily there's a lot to be fleshed out yet. Bump this thread on Feb 9th.

(edited for spelling)

I could see myself voting for Obama even though I disagree with him on so many issues. But not if Edwards is involved.

My God, I have no idea who I'm going to vote for. But it won't be Hillary.

[Busyman]

Originally Posted by Fonzy13

I could see myself voting for Obama even though I disagree with him on so many issues. But not if Edwards is involved.

My God, I have no idea who I'm going to vote for. But it won't be Hillary.

If it's Hilary, I'm punching the Republican ticket even if the Republican ticket is a plank of wood & an empty bucket.

[Dewitt Clinton]

I'm going to write in McCain in the NYS primary.

[Green Must Go]

I really have no clue who I will vote for at this point. In my mind this is still a wide-open race. The only two I wouldn't vote for are Hillary and Edwards.

[NeilAllen]

Originally Posted by KingOlerud

Romney got hurt most by the large evangelical turnout, though I'm surprised that Thompson and McCain got as large a share as they did. Romney has been slow and steady the entire time. Exaggerations of his death are being greatly exaggerated.

Yeah you know looking at the stats again and the low GOP turnout and especially the COMPLETE lack of delegates up for grabs it won't be that hard for Mitt to recover. Still he took a big gamble by spending so much in a place like Iowa and getting so little to show for it. That doesn't bode well.

And speaking of money, it's too bad Fred Thompson's broke because he may be my last hope before long. I'm not a McCain fan and I find Huckabee to be such a complete and utter tool that I'm at the point that were he to get the Republican nomination (shudder) I could see myself voting Democrat maybe even Hillary. No joke.

[lgm6986]

Holy sh*t I wouldn't go that far. If Huckleberry Finn got the Republican nomination I wouldn't vote for that witch.