Quote:
Originally Posted by MetfanBren  It's amazing how 1978 is the #1 reason why everyone thinks the Yankees will catch them and the Sox will fold, while 2004 has absolutely no relevance whatsoever. They've managed to win two games in October since that historic collapse.... |
Here's something else to think about as concerns this race:
The Yanks played today their 93rd game, which means that they have 69 games left, including the completion of a suspended game which they lead in the 8th inning against the hapless Orioles. Assume arguendo and for ease of demonstration that they
win that game (an assumption which may be dubious). That leaves a record of 49-45, with 68 games left to play. In their final 68 games of each championship season during the Mother Torresa era, here are the records from year to year:
1996 35-33 .514
1997 42-26 .617
1998 45-23 .661
1999 41-27 .603
2000 35-33 .515
2001 39-29 .574
2002 44-24 .647
2003 43-25 .632
2004 41-27 .603
2005 44-24 .647
2006 42-26 .617
This is what they have to do in their final 68 games this season in order to win 95 games, which is the number of likely wins necessary to win the Wild Card in the AL this year. As you can see, it exceeds their best record in their final 68 games during the magical, once in a lifetime season of 1998.
They simply have dug themselves too big and deep a hole this time. 2007 46-22 .676
As far as the division is concerned, that's an even taller order. During the 11 years of the Mother Torresa era, the average number of wins to take the AL east in any given year has been 98.272 games, which would mean that they would have to go
50-18 .735
over their final 68 games. Let's cut them a break, and throw out the two high and low win totals during the 11 year span. Eliminating the 114 win season of 1998 and the 87 win season of 2000, we still have an average win total per season of 97.777 to take the division. That means that even by giving them the benefit of the doubt, and eliminating the extreme high and low win totals over the past 11 years, they still have to go at least
49-19 .721
to capture the division flag, based upon historical precedent.
These records are 5 and 4 games better than the best run they have ever put together in the Mother Torresa era over their last 68 games. Stick a fork in their asses and turn them over, they're done.
Data is King.
Every loss from here on in makes the mathematics, and the final outcome that much more inexorable and inevitable.
Even in 1978 the run they made in their final 69 games (including the one game playoff at Fenway) was not good enough for the present circumstance. They went that season
48-21 .695
in their final 69 games.